Sunday has once again delivered for WNBA fans, with a four-game slate kicking off at 3 p.m. ET and continuing until around 11 p.m. Both the Liberty and Aces are in action Sunday, with both teams inevitably glancing at their calendars ahead of their Commissioner’s Cup Final scheduled for Tuesday.
However, just as those teams will want to avoid looking ahead, let’s not get ahead of ourselves either. Indiana and Atlanta will both make the two teams work today, and while betting the Commissioner’s Cup Final should be a blast, this slate offers plenty for bettors, as well, so let’s not dilly dally!
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WNBA Odds & Picks
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| Matchup | Time |
| Sky vs. Mystics | 3 p.m. ET |
| Liberty vs. Fever | 3 p.m. ET |
| Mercury vs. Storm | 6 p.m. ET |
| Dream vs. Aces | 9 p.m. ET |
Sky vs. Mystics Odds
| Sky Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|
TBD
|
TBD
|
TBD
|
| Mystics Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|
TBD
|
TBD
|
TBD |
The books have not released spread, total, or player props for this game, despite it being only a few hours out because there are three starters listed as questionable for the Mystics today.
The availability of Elena Delle Donne, Natasha Cloud and Shakira Austin will clearly have a massive impact on every part of this game, and there should indeed be lots of strong edges to find. So make sure to follow @TurveyBets in the Action app and set up notifications because lines will likely be moving fast once news comes out.
Bet: TBD
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Liberty vs. Fever Odds
| Liberty Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|
-10.5
|
166.5
-110/ -110
|
-700
|
| Fever Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|
+10.5
|
166.5
-110/ -110
|
+470
|
For the Liberty-Fever game, we have a full preview up here, so go make sure to check that out and the three bets recommended.
Bet: Liberty 1Q Spread
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Mercury vs. Storm Odds
| Mercury Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|
+1.5
|
160.5
-110/ -110
|
+100
|
| Storm Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|
-1.5
|
160.5
-110/ -110
|
-120 |
The Mercury and Storm are facing off, and the two teams are each fresh off a W! What year is this?!
Joking aside, despite this being tough seasons for both clubs, the Mercury and Storm are actually both playing some pretty respectable ball of late. Both teams have positive Net Ratings since July 24th, with a combined record of 7-7. It’s not a high bar that they’re clearing, but when looking at their full-season records, it’s definitely progress.
Phoenix has the more impressive win of the two, with a W over the Connecticut Sun in their last time on the court, but they have also been historically poor on the road this season, with a 1-13 record and -16.2 Net Fating for the season. The Storm have also won all three matchups between these two sides this season, including two in Phoenix. Now they get to go for the sweep at home on Sunday.
However, it’s not the spread that I’m looking at for Sunday. Instead, I’m looking to the total, where I have been impressed with the defense from the Storm lately. Since July 24th, they have a Defensive Rating of 96.2, which would lead the league over the course of the full season. However, offense has been the big struggle for Phoenix on the road, with an Offensive Rating of 93.9, which, despite sounding like a good radio station, is a terrible Offensive Rating.
As such, I love the Mercury team total under 81.5, but I also like the full-game total to go under 160.5.
Bet: Mercury Team Total Under 81.5 | Under 160.5
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Dream vs. Aces Odds
| Dream Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|
+17.5
|
175.5
-110/ -110
|
+1120
|
| Aces Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|
-17.5
|
175.5
-110/ -110
|
-3000 |
Hoo boy. Things in Atlanta are looking a little sketchy again. After getting up to 14-11 by the end of July, the Dream have now dropped back to .500, at 15-15.
Even more concerning than the losses, though, is whom they have been losing to. Among those four recent losses, three came at the hands of teams projected to miss the postseason. Again, in a league where two-thirds of the teams make the postseason, that’s really the bottom of the barrel.
It’s also troubling because the Dream earlier this season were at least beating the teams they should beat. If that’s no longer the case, the end of this season could get really dicey. If you take away this team’s seven-game win streak in July that came mostly against teams either hurt or at the bottom of the standings, this team looks like it belongs outside the playoff picture.
So, is that how we should treat them in their matchup with the Aces?
Well, to some degree, yes. One “trick” WNBA bettors have been on all season is to bet the big teams in the first half of these matchups with the bottom of the league. Both the Aces and Liberty have been absolutely boat racing these lesser teams in the first 20 minutes of games all year.
Like the other lower-tier teams, the Dream have been getting smoked in the first half. They have the second-worst first/second half splits of any team in the league, as they have been slow starters all season. As such, Aces -9.5 is a much more palatable bet than the full game -16.5, as crazy as that sounds.
For player props, I’m going to keep running out the props I have been on for the Aces without Candace Parker: A’ja Wilson rebounds and Chelsea Gray assists. I like both overs today (Wilson at 9.5 and Gray at 6.5), in part thanks to the quick pace that the Dream play at, which should ensure plenty of possessions for the Aces.
One final bet: I like the Aces first-half team total, but you will have to either make that play live or have some more random books to find it.
Bet: Aces 1H -9.5 | A’ja Wilson Over 9.5 Rebounds | Chelsea Gray Over 6.5 Assists
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