Sunday brings us yet another fun slate, with five games to feast upon. Below it or not, we’re already more than a quarter of the way through the season, with All-Star votes getting under way and patterns starting to emerge.
One massive trend so far is that underdogs have dominated the 2023 WNBA season. Dogs are 34-21-1 this season for a +16.9% ROI. That trend has been even more pronounced when the dog is at home–those home dogs are 14-6 for a crazy +32.8% ROI.
Of course, it’s still very early in the season, and the books will begin to adjust to this overarching pattern. However, we can infer that WNBA holds far more parity than most imagined this season. Outside of the Aces, any team can pretty much beat any team on any given night.
With that in mind, let’s dig into our best bets for this loaded Sunday slate.
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WNBA Odds & Picks
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| Matchup | Time |
| Sky vs. Mystics | 3 p.m. ET |
| Dream vs. Fever | 4 p.m. ET |
| Lynx vs. Aces | 9 p.m. ET |
Sky vs. Mystics Odds
| Sky Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|
+5.5
-110
|
155.5
-115 / -105
|
+190
|
| Mystics Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|
-5.5
-110
|
155.5
-115 / -105
|
-240
|
My favorite bet in this game is a player prop on Alanna Smith, who has been one of the best stories of the young season. Through the first 11 games of the season for the Sky, she’s averaging 10.5 points (up from 4.3 last season) and 6.3 boards (up from 2.7 in 2022) on 38.9% shooting from 3 and elite defense (0.9 steals and 1.8 blocks per game).
Of course, as Captain Wet Blanket, I am once again here to fade one of these stories. This fade isn’t just about the fact that her numbers have all jumped, but I do expect her numbers to come back to earth a little bit, especially her shooting, where her 38.9% from 3 and 67.4% from 2 are both comically above her career rate.
This is also a play on the return of Morgan Bertsch, who started the season as the starting power forward, with Smith coming off the bench. In the three games in which they both played, Smith averaged just 7.0 points and 2.3 rebounds a game. Of course, it was during Bertsch’s absence that Smith broke out, and given that this is Bertsch’s first game back, she likely won’t be thrown back fully into her role from before getting hurt.
That being said, when we get to combine the potential regression from Smith along with the battle for minutes once again at her preferred position, and I am going with under 10.5 points and under 6.5 rebounds at FanDuel both as my best bets for the entire slate on Sunday. I would bet Smith’s points to a juiced under 9.5 and her rebounds to under 5.
Pick: Alanna Smith Under 10.5 Points |
Pick: Alanna Smith Under 7.5 Rebounds |
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Dream vs. Fever Odds
| Dream Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|
+1.5
-114
|
161.5
-115 / -105
|
-102
|
| Fever Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|
-1.5
-106
|
161.5
-115 / -105
|
-120
|
The Dream and Fever are two of the most fun young teams in the W right now, and to be perfectly honest, this is actually the game from Sunday I am most excited to watch. I also think it will be fun for a neutral fan because I see more points coming than the books do. I had this number projected close to 165.5 even without accounting for how the two teams match up.
Adding in the matchup factors only makes this an even more interesting bet.
One key factor is that both teams should get second chances aplenty. The Fever have the second-best Offensive Rebound Rate this season, which should spell plenty of second looks against a Dream team that has the second-worst Defensive Rebounding Rate in the WNBA this season.
Ironically, that same dynamic may well play out on the other side of the ball, where the Dream are tied for the most second-chance points in the WNBA this season, while the Fever allow an above-average number of second-chance points per game. All these second chances should spell good news for the over.
These are also the two teams tied for the second-best record to the over this season, both having gone 6-3 to the over in 2023. The Fever also are the most foul-happy team in the WNBA, while the Dream get to the line at a top-four rate.
And finally, these are two elite fourth-quarter teams. That might not sound relevant, but the fourth quarter is where offense can go to die sometimes, but these two teams have, by miles, the two best Net Ratings in the fourth quarter, performing basically at a Las Vegas Aces level offense in the final 12 minutes.
This sounds wild, but I would take this all the way up to 169.5.
Pick: Dream-Fever Over (Play to 169.5) |
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Lynx vs. Aces Odds
| Lynx Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|
+17.5
-110
|
167.5
-110 / -110
|
+1200
|
| Aces Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|
-17.5
-110
|
167.5
-110 / -110
|
-3500 |
With easily the biggest spread of the day, this is nothing new for the Aces, as they’ve been double-digit favorites in nine of their 11 games now. That’s truly insane.
But it’s deserved, as they have covered five of the 10 that have actually been played. With the spread potentially figured out for Las Vegas, I’m looking to the total for this game.
Specifically I’m looking to the first-half over. The potential for a blowout and weird stuff happening in the fourth when the benches are battling it out has me nervous for a full-game over, but the Aces have seen their games go over this total in six of 10 games, with one more right at 167. The Lynx are the worst first-half defense in the league, and first-half overs have been slightly profitable overall for the season.
I see some wiggle room in this bet and would take up to 87.5 for the first-half total.
Pick: Lynx-Aces 1H Over 84.5 (Play to 87.5) |
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