Trade deadline day in the NBA is always hectic one and in the hours of uncertainty surround the teams that are buyers or sellers (or somewhere in between) it can be easy to forget that there are actual games on the schedule.
Tonight features a double-header on TNT — Nets vs. Wizards (7:30 p.m. ET) and Bucks vs. Suns (10 p.m. ET) — but our crew has their eyes on one game in particular.
They break down how they are betting that game below.
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NBA Odds & Picks
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| Grizzlies vs. Pistons 1H Team Total | 7 p.m. ET |
| Grizzlies vs. Pistons Props | 7 p.m. ET |
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Detroit Pistons
| Pick | Grizzlies 1H Team Total Over 58.5 |
| Book | BetMGM |
| Tipoff | 7 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBA League Pass |
Joe Dellera: The Memphis Grizzlies take on the Detroit Pistons today as double-digit favorites. An interesting wrinkle to today’s contest is the trade deadline, and it’s entirely likely that Detroit’s Jerami Grant is found a new home, which would compromise their offense.
There have not been any rumblings about the Grizzlies entering the trade market, which does not necessarily mean they are not making any moves; however, it’s tough to imagine that they’d do anything to disrupt the current young core that has been so successful.
With that in mind, the Grizzlies have the seventh-best Adjusted Net Rating (+4.3), and the fifth-best Adjusted Offensive Rating (113.3). On the flip side, the Pistons have the worst Adjusted Net Rating (-9.3), the second-worst Adjusted Offensive Rating (103.3), and the seventh-worst Adjusted Defensive Rating (112.5). This is a significant mismatch.
The one good thing here is that both teams play fast, the Grizzlies have the eighth-fastest Pace while the Pistons are 13th, and I expect the Grizzlies to push the Pace in this matchup considering their significant advantage in both transition and in the halfcourt. One concern I have is that if this is a blowout, the Pace in the second half could slow down, and with a 12 points spread I’m less interested in any full-game numbers.
The Grizzlies should get off to a fast start, and before they go deeper into their bench and adjust their rotations in a blowout, I’ll take the Grizzlies to go over 58.5 points in the first half.
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| Pick | Isaiah Stewart Over 8.5 REB (+100) | Over 9.5 (+155) | Over 11.5 (+375) |
| Book | PointsBet |
Brandon Anderson: Stewart has been unleashed as an offensive rebounder over the past six games, averaging a whopping 6.2 offensive rebounds per game during that stretch. Add in 7.2 defensive boards per game too and he’s at 13.3 RPG for these six games, dominating the glass and helping the offense by keeping possessions alive. He’s also playing 31.1 MPG and adding 9.5 PPG, so he’s a nightly double-double threat.
Stewart has at least 11 rebounds in six straight games, so this is a smash spot until the books adjust the line up to account for the increased offensive rebounding. It won’t be easy since Memphis is a terrific rebounding team, first in the league on the offensive glass itself, but all the more reason to expect Detroit to lean heavily on Stewart to play big minutes to offset that Grizz strength. We just need to hope this isn’t a blowout.
We’re projecting Stewart at 10.6 rebounds tonight, and remember, that would be his lowest output in seven games. If you want the safest play, you can play Stewart to go over 7.5 rebounds at -135 at DraftKings. He’s gone over that on offensive rebounds alone in two of the last three games, and he went over it despite playing only 20 minutes in his other Grizzlies game this season.
This looks like a nice spot to get more aggressive, though, and that’s why I’m riding the escalator. A great thing about offensive rebounds is that you can get more than one on the same possession, so you can rack up boards in a hurry.
If we hit the over-8.5 at even odds, we only need one more board to go over 9.5 at +155, which is a bit silly. And we have to play the alt over-11.5 too since Stewart has hit that in five of these last six games and we’re getting +375, implying only 21% hit rate.
If you really want to go nuts, you can move to FanDuel and play 14-plus rebounds at +750, a feat Stewart has accomplished six times already this season and two of the last three games. Or go all in at 16-plus boards for double the price of +1500. There’s a chance Stewart could check every box.
For me, I’ll stick with the 8.5, 9.5, and 11.5 overs.
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