Is there anything better than 10-plus hours of NBA Playoff basketball on a Saturday afternoon? Our betting analyst certainly don’t think so.
Today’s wall-to-wall postseason coverage begins with 76ers vs. Raptors (2 p.m. ET), a series that could see its end if the Raptors can’t pull out a home win. The action heads to Utah for the wildly entertaining West series between the Mavericks and Jazz (4:30 p.m. ET).
The star-studded matchup between the Celtics and Nets (7:30 p.m. ET) shifts to Barclays Center in Brooklyn for the third leg of playoff coverage, then the night closes out with Game 4 of Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves (10 p.m. ET) after an historic comeback by Memphis.
While each of those games is compelling in its own right, our crew has zeroed in on two matchups are they are leaning heavily on players props.
Find their expert analysis and best bets for Saturday below.
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NBA Odds & Picks
| Click on a pick to skip ahead | |
| Mavericks vs. Jazz Spread & Moneyline | 4:30 p.m. ET |
| Mavericks vs. Jazz Player Prop | 4:30 p.m. ET |
| Mavericks vs. Jazz Player Prop | 4:30 p.m. ET |
| Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves Player Prop | 10 p.m. ET |
| Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves Spread & Moneyline | 10 p.m. ET |
Dallas Mavericks vs. Utah Jazz
| Pick | Mavs +6 | Mavs ML (+205) |
| Book | WynnBet |
| Tipoff | 4:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | TNT |
Brandon Anderson: It feels like this series might be over.
The Jazz are up against it. They’re down 2-1 playing at home for the franchise at this point. You can’t get eliminated like this in three consecutive playoffs and not see serious changes. If Utah comes home and loses both games, it feels like they’re cooked and at least one or more of Donovan Mitchell, Rudy Gobert, and Quin Snyder are gone.
Normally, that would make this a kitchen sink sort of game for Utah, a spot to back the Jazz with everything on the line. I’m just not sure this team particularly cares. They have seemingly openly quarreled with each other for some time now, and they have to be getting just as sick and tired of watching this same old movie as the rest of us.
Opponents go small, play a stretch big, drive past a nothing burger perimeter defense, catch Rudy Gobert trying to defend two guys at once 22 feet apart, kick to the corner, open 3-pointer, swish. Rinse, wash, repeat.
The Mavs cracked the code in Game 2, then repeated it in Game 3. Maxi Kleber and Davis Bertans are raining fire from downtown, and Jalen Brunson is getting anything he wants.
The one saving grace for Utah is that they Jazzed themselves in the third quarter of Game 3, benching Gobert and trying out a small-ball lineup with Eric Paschall at center. That opened things up and helped Utah look maybe its best offensively that it had looked all series. Mitchell had all sorts of space to attack the rim, so it might be a good spot to pair Mitchell overs with Gobert unders in case we get that again.
But will the Jazz go to that no Gobert lineup early or often enough? It doesn’t feel like it. It also didn’t look like that team had even a remote chance defensively, and if Luka Doncic suits up, he should pick apart that defense.
Utah can’t hit its 3s. It can’t defend this team. It just feels like the Jazz are out of answers and they turned over their own answer key to Jason Kidd and the Mavs.
If the Jazz commit to playing small, maybe this turns into a shootout and a shot variance game. But even their scoring right now doesn’t look particularly sustainable and relies far too much on Jordan Clarkson doing stuff.
Nothing I’ve seen from this series has earned the respect of a six-point line. I’ll play the cover, and I’ll play the Mavs to win outright. Once you’ve given away the answer key, it’s pretty tough to put the toothpaste back in the tube.
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Dallas Mavericks vs. Utah Jazz
| Pick | Rudy Gobert Under 29.5 PTS + AST + REB (-110) |
| Book | Caesars |
| Tipoff | 4:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | TNT |
Matt Moore: Gobert is oh-for on this prop in this series. In Game 3, out of sheer desperation, Quin Snyder went small, playing non-center Eric Paschall. It worked, the Jazz got back into the game that way by boosting their offensive production.
There’s no reason to think that the only strategy the Jazz have found to slow down the Mavericks will be abandoned in a must-win game at home. Whether it’s Paschall or Hassan Whiteside, who is a net positive in this series so far, Gobert is likely to play fewer minutes.
Gobert’s scoring has been scant, and his rebounds have dipped recently. He’s also not a passer. This line is way too steep. I like it down to 27.5.
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Dallas Mavericks vs. Utah Jazz
| Pick | Donovan Mitchell Over 30.5 Points (-115) |
| Book | BetMGM |
| Tipoff | 4:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | TNT |
Malik Smith: Donovan Mitchell has been one of the two consistent scorers for the Utah Jazz in this series so far. In fact, in the three games so far this series, Mitchell is averaging 32.7 points per game, topping the 30-point mark in all three games.
Mitchell is also the only player on the Jazz averaging 40-plus minutes per game so far. He has also averaged an unreal 26.7 field goal attempts in this series — Mitchell took 30 of the Jazz’s 82 shots in Game 2.
Scoring isn’t new for Mitchell, especially on this stage. He has scored 31 or more points in eight out his last 10 playoff games. He can create his own shot off the dribble, knock down 3-point shots and is an excellent free throw shooter.
The Jazz are going to need Mitchell to continue his scoring ways if they want to a chance to even up this series. And despite his low efficiency perfomances thus far, it appears he’s set on leading the team in shot attempts by a wide margin. I will continue to take Mitchell over this 30.5 points line.
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Memphis Grizzlies vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
| Pick | Ja Morant Over 8.5 Assists (-113) |
| Book | BetRivers |
| Tipoff | 10 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Matt Moore: The Wolves are running the second most at-the-level coverage in pick-and-roll in the playoffs currently.
That puts both players defending pick-and-roll up on the ball-handler to force the ball out of Morant’s hands. It leads to high percentage opportunities if they can hit the trigger and Brandon Clarke and Jaren Jackson can both finish off the roll.
Morant has gone over this line twice already in this series, including Games 2 and 3. Minnesota likely plays better offensively in Game 4 after that epic collapse, but Morant will have enough opportunities to pick up double digit assists. I like this prop up to 9.5.
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Memphis Grizzlies vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
| Pick | Timberwolves +3 | Timberwolves ML (+130) |
| Book | PointsBet |
| Tipoff | 10 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Raheem Palmer: The Memphis Grizzlies overcame two 20 point deficits to defeat the Minnesota Timberwolves in Game 3 of their first round playoff series. While many may assume the Wolves are done, I’m not buying it.
The Wolves have been the better team for much of this series. For large parts of the last three games, the Grizzlies have struggled to score in the half court. They ranked 23rd in half court points per possession (93.4) in the regular season while the Wolves ranking 14th (97) in that same category.
In the postseason, when the game slows down, it’s a lot easier to neutralize a team that generates much of its points in transition and through second chance points on offensive rebounds. While the playoff metrics won’t show it due to that 21-0 run in the fourth, the Wolves have had the better starting lineup while the Grizzlies are surviving off their depth.
The biggest thing is that the Wolves have been able to play Steven Adams off the floor and still dominate them on the glass for large parts of this series. It’s quite telling that the Wolves held multiple 20 point leads despite Karl Anthony Towns getting into foul trouble and scoring eight points on just 3-of-4 shooting. While Towns is prone to foul trouble, we simply can’t expect these kind of performances from him going forward. He’s simply too good of a player.
As long as Wolves can clean up the small mental errors, they have a real shot at winning Game 4 and potentially taking this series. I’ll back them in Game 4 on the spread and moneyline and sprinkle a small amount on the Wolves to come back and win the series at +560.
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