Game 1 of Lakers vs. Warriors felt like it was going to be an instant classic when the Warriors stormed back in the fourth quarter. A missed 3-pointer from Jordan Poole at the end of regulation was the difference between overtime and the Lakers taking home-court advantage and a 1-0 series. What will we get in Game 2?
Action Network’s NBA analysts are all over Game 2 with five best bets today and there’s a lot of attention on the Warriors to bounce back at home. Check out their expert picks for Lakers vs Warriors Game 2 below.
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Los Angeles Lakers vs Golden State Warriors
| Pick | Warriors -2 1Q (-110) |
| Book | DraftKings |
| Tipoff | 9 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Bryan Fonseca: The Golden State Warriors led by two or more after one quarter three times against the high powered Sacramento Kings offense.
After a Game 1 road victory against the Memphis Grizzlies last series, the Los Angeles Lakers let up in Game 2, out to a 30-19 deficit after one. And after a Game 4 victory, they allowed Memphis to plow them 38-24 in the opening stanza of Game 5 before more than returning the favor in Game 6.
You know where I’m going with this — Lakers let down early, Warriors respond, cover the first quarter spread, and likely win the game as the books and many of us anticipate.
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Los Angeles Lakers vs Golden State Warriors
| Pick | Under 227.5 |
| Book | DraftKings |
Matt Moore: I wrote more about this matchup and the different angles we saw in Game 1, so there are a few bets I like for Game 2. The Warriors looked very much surprised by the physicality and intensity. The adjustment of Game 7 vs. the Kings to Game 1 vs. the Lakers was stark.
The Lakers had five days to prep for the Warriors; Golden State had one to get ready for the Lakers. Golden State will find ways to play better defensively, and as they do, this will grind down further, and the Warriors’ three-point edge will matter.
This lost in Game 1 thanks to a faster-paced game than expected. But neither of these offenses are great. I’ll come back and believe that the Warriors will do a better job defensively and a least a few of their shots will convert into 2-pointers.
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Los Angeles Lakers vs Golden State Warriors
| Pick | Warriors -5.5 |
| Book | BetMGM |
Chris Baker: Game 1 was a nightmare situationally for the Warriors as they had to turn around off of an emotional road Game 7 win and play on one day of rest against a Lakers team with a three-day rest advantage.
The Lakers’ starters played limited minutes on Friday night versus the Grizzlies as the game was a 40-point blowout throughout most of the second half. I think we saw a much more focused defensive effort from this Warriors defense in game two. If we get some improvement defensively I think the Warriors obviously have more than an enough offensive firepower to cover this number.
The Warriors had an average offensive rating of 113.1 in Game 1, but you could argue that their offensive process was terrific as they attempted about half of their shots from deep and turned the ball over on just 7.1% of their possessions. That was their best mark of the entire season and it’s extremely encouraging as turnovers are only offensive area in which the Warriors have historically struggled (29th in NBA this season).
The second factor that caught my eye was the 3-point line, where the Warriors attempted 52 3-pointers to the Lakers 25. That is a shockingly high math edge and I don’t think that is a consistent recipe for success when defending the greatest 3-point shooting duo of all time. It’s important to highlight that these weren’t 3-pointers attempted by bad Warriors role players, Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson got up 29 3s combined.
I think it is more likely the Warriors improve on their Game 1 offensive performance than we see another repeat Anthony Davis shooting performance. Davis played 44 minutes last night while LeBron James logged 40 minutes and none of the Warriors starters logged above 40 minutes. Game 1 felt like a punt game to me and I would expect the Warriors to come out with a lot more urgency at home in game two as they try and avoid going down 2-0.
James and Davis have proven over the past few years’ that they are incapable of playing consistent minutes and I would expect them to fade throughout the series as they continue to carry massive workloads. Take the Warriors -5.5 and expect their math advantage to help cover this spread. Play this up to -6.5.
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Los Angeles Lakers vs Golden State Warriors
| Pick | Warriors -5.5 |
| Book | BetMGM |
Brandon Anderson: Game 1 wasn’t pretty for the Warriors.
The Lakers dominated physically, winning the battle in the paint by holding Golden State to an ugly 22 of 53 on 2-pointers, just 42%. Anthony Davis was awesome with 30 points, 23 rebounds, and stellar defense, and the Warriors got dominated at the line and couldn’t get the win despite six threes from each of the Splash Cousins and a wild late flurry.
The home team is supposed to win Game 1 in the playoffs, but that has not been the case so far this postseason. The road team stole Game 1 in half the first-round series, and now they’re at it again, stealing three of the four Game 1s in round two.
But it hasn’t gone so well in Game 2. Just take a look at the last couple days. The Knicks bounced back with a late home push to even the score with the Heat. The Celtics blew the Sixers out despite the return of Joel Embiid. The first round had a similar trend. Home teams down 0-1 in Game 2 are a perfect 6-0 this postseason, winning by an average of 16.2 points with a double-digit win in all but one of them. In fact, the home team has won 15 straight games in that spot, down 0-1 at home for Game 2.
It makes sense. The road team had a job to do — steal one of the first two games on the road — and the job is done. The home team is effectively playing for its season, and the intensity plus the home crowd is just tough to overcome. That’s the spot for the Lakers up 1-0, and it’s a spot we already saw them fold a round ago in Memphis, going down 11 in the first quarter and never really recovering.
The Warriors have a lot of problems in this series, but this is about the spot, not the matchup. The Lakers gave everything in Game 1, with 44 minutes for Davis, who was dragging through the final minutes and 40 for 38-year-old LeBron James. Expect the Lakers to give it a go early and if the shots aren’t falling, just fold up shop, get some rest, and go back to Los Angeles 1-1.
I took the Warriors -4.5 at open but still like it at -5.5. I’ll be ready to double down with a Take Me Home third quarter if necessary and don’t blame you if you want to play an alt line for a double-digit win fitting the recent trends. Let’s head to L.A. 1-1.
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Los Angeles Lakers vs Golden State Warriors
| Pick | Warriors -5.5 |
| Book | BetMGM |
Andrew O’Connor-Watts: This is a great situational spot for the Warriors who will look to even the series after Tuesday’s upset loss to the Lakers.
Los Angeles had the rest advantage going into Game 1 finishing their Memphis series on Saturday in six games, while the Warriors had to win a Game 7 in Sacramento on Sunday after messing around at home and losing Game 6 to the Kings.
The Lakers knew they’d have to strike early and capitalize on that rest advantage, which led to LeBron James and Anthony Davis combining for 84 minutes on Tuesday. As a result, I think L.A. will likely punt and rest up for Games 3 and 4 at home after stealing one on the road in San Francisco.
The Warriors will look to protect their home court with a win and if you’ve been following our content here at Action Network, you’ll know that playoff teams that win also cover.
If I’m right, Golden State wouldn’t be the only team to respond well after a disappointing loss to start a series (we saw it last night with the Celtics dominance of the Sixers). According to Bet Labs, since the 2018-19 season, teams after losing Game 1 at home are 13-1 ATS (92.9%) in Game 2. The Warriors even did it in last year’s NBA Finals, beating the Boston Celtics 107-88 in Game 2 after an upset loss in the Finals opener.
Similarly, teams that lost a game in which they were favorites of four or more points are 8-3 this postseason–a trend that holds up at a 61.3% clip all-time.
I’m certainly not the only person on this play—far from it. But at least a handful of those people are market-movers as this line has already shifted from where it opened at -5.
My model has this right at Warriors -5.5, but based on the situational edge, I’d take them to -6.5.
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