Six days ago, the Boston Celtics were staring down a potential sweep in the Eastern Conference finals at the hands of the Miami Heat. On Monday, they have a chance to make the NBA Finals if they can pick up an unprecedented fourth win in a row after falling into an 0-3 hole.
It all comes down to Game 7 and Action Network’s betting analysts are aligned with their best bets today. Check out their expert picks for Heat vs. Celtics Game 7 below.
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Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics
| Pick | Al Horford Over 1.5 Steals + Blocks |
| Book | DraftKings |
| Tipoff | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | TNT |
Joe Dellera: Al Horford had his ups and downs during this series, but it seems as if the Celtics have returned to using Big Al as the primary big man in these games with 31 minutes in Game 6. His minutes have actually increased in each of Boston’s three wins to force a Game 7.
Horford’s versatility on both offense and defense is what makes him so valuable and keeps him on the floor. Despite some concerns about his shot not falling, he is still an excellent rim protector while clogging passing lanes. He has now had back-to-back games with two stocks and has at least two in four of the six games of this series as well as nine of the past 12 games against the Heat during the past two playoffs.
As long as the minutes are there, he’s good on this number, and has exceeded 1.5 stocks in 84% of playoff games this season.
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Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics
| Pick | Under 203.5 |
| Book | DraftKings |
| Tipoff | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | TNT |
Matt Moore: I wrote about several different angles, from the spread to the moneyline, entering Game 7 in my column here.
Since 2005, unders are 37-22 (62.7%) in Game 7s, according to Bet Labs. Since 2013, unders are 22-14 (61.1%). Since 2018, unders are 14-5 (73.7%) and 10-5 (66.7%) excluding the Bubble.
My strongest expectation is that Boston engages defensively with one game to win to pull off the biggest comeback in history (but not the greatest), fueled by a home crowd.
They hit shots, win the game, and this goes under. But instead of betting on Celtics shot variance, I’ll ride with the under and feel good about it.
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Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics
| Pick | Under 104.5 1H (-110) |
| Book | DraftKings |
| Tipoff | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | TNT |
Bryan Fonseca: Can we reasonably predict anything tomorrow?
The Heat shot 30% on 2s (18% from mid-range!) but were 14-of-30 from deep and, despite Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo shooting a combined 9-of-37 from the field, almost won?
The Celtics mostly outplayed Miami until the final quarter but shot 20% on 3s (making only seven) and despite shooting 63% on 2s, they nearly lost because, duh, 3s are greater 2s.
You could talk me into anything. Boston blows Miami away with three-point variance? Sure. Jimmy Butler — who shook off Games 3-5 last year, averaging 9.0 points per game and shooting 25% during that stretch — could explode again for 47 in Boston where it looks like he and the Heat are cooked? Sure!
Does Jayson Tatum have another epic Game 7 performance as he did against the Philadelphia 76ers? Maybe! Does Adebayo have another strong closeout game, as he has last two series’ enders against Boston and each of the last two Miami series’ in these playoffs? Maybe!
The one thing I do expect is mud. Early mud.
The under has hit in three straight games overall, but as realistic as that 203.5 under could be, I’ll stick with a slightly safer under 104.5 in the first half. There’s a world where one team surprisingly blows out the other by having it going from three and or stars playing like stars, pardon the simplification, but It’s likelier than every possession is an adventure with both teams playing hard en route to 52-46 halftime score, or something along those lines, for example.
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Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics
| Pick | Under 203.5 |
| Book | DraftKings |
| Tipoff | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | TNT |
Austin Wang: I wrote about this matchup in the Heat-Celtics Game 7 betting guide. I expect this to be a rock fight. At the time of this publishing, the total is at 203.5 DraftKings, a reasonable adjustment for a Game 7, but I think there’s still some room to move.
Game 7s have gone 41-24 (63.1%) to the under in the history of the Killer Sports SDQL database, dating back to the 2002-2003 season. The nerves are high, these teams are so familiar with one another, and they are fatigued. Referees tend to call Game 7s with a tighter whistle and they won’t have a combined 63 free throws like they did in Game 6. Since the 2018-2019 season, only three of the 12 Game 7s have gone over this 203.5 mark.
Both teams shot greater than 50% in Game 5, yet the total went under and still only reached 207 points. Game 6 saw a foul-happy 63 free throws, but the total once again went under with 207 total points. For this win-or-go-home Game 7, I don’t expect that level of shooting or amount of free throws. I make the total for this game 201 and would play the total down to 202.
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Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics
| Pick | Under 203.5 |
| Book | DraftKings |
| Tipoff | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | TNT |
Andrew O’Connor-Watts: Last game was a grind out game and we saw the fatigue set in for both teams– especially the Heat. Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo combined to shoot 9-of-37 and while either of them could easily shoot better next game, but the role players could also shoot worse from beyond the arc.
Caleb Martin, Max Strus, Gabe Vincent and Duncan Robinson shot a combined 12-of-25 from deep and that could regress in front of the Boston home crowd.
The game tends to slow down as the series progresses, and we’ve already seen it happen. Games 5 and 6 had a combined Pace of 88.8 possessions per game compared to 96.5 in Games 1-4. On top of that, Game 7s are historical under spots at 37-22 (62.7%) since 2004 and 9-3 (75%) since the Bubble season.
I’m ready for a classic 90s rock fight, and by 90s I mean both era and score. I took this at under 203.5 but would bet it to 200.5.
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