Wednesday’s NBA slate is light but packs a punch with a few fun matchups on the national TV slate. Action Network’s NBA staff has four picks for four of the evening’s matchups on tonight’s slate including bets for Heat vs Spurs and Pelicans vs Clippers.
Let’s dive into our NBA best bets and expert picks for Wednesday, February 7.
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NBA Best Bets Today | Expert Picks for Wednesday, Feb. 7
Cavaliers vs. Wizards
Jarrett Allen Over 11.5 Rebounds, BetMGM
By Joe Dellera
The Cavaliers take on the Wizards today and it’s an advantageous matchup for Jarrett Allen.
Although Allen generally sees a decline in his stats when playing alongside Evan Mobley, this specific matchup against Daniel Gafford is one to target. In their latest head-to-head matchups, Allen has recorded 12, 19, eight, 14, 14, 13, 10 and 14 rebounds against Gafford.
Couple that with the fact that Gafford has been involved in trade rumors and Marvin Bagley is out tonight, and there is the potential for the Wizards to be extremely understaffed at the center position.
I like Allen to exceed his 11.5 rebounds prop.
Pick: Jarrett Allen Over 11.5 Rebounds
Raptors vs. Hornets
Brandon Miller Over 21.5 Points, ESPN BET
By Joe Dellera
The Hornets host the Raptors today and I’m targeting their exciting young rookie in this contest. Brandon Miller has been on one of late and this is a solid matchup against the Raptors.
Miller’s points line is set at 21.5, a number he’s exceeded in three straight and seven of his past 10, while averaging 23.6 points per game. Unless he gets into foul trouble, he should see plenty of time on the court today with a relatively soft matchup against R.J. Barrett or Bruce Brown. Additionally, the Raptors have the second-worst Defensive Rating (121.9) in the league since Jan. 1 (the OG Anunoby Trade).
I like Miller to exceed this points line and I’m fine at 22.5 as well.
Pick: Brandon Miller Over 21.5 Points
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Heat vs. Spurs
Under 226.5, PointsBet
The Heat are returning to their defensive identity, and while they don’t yet have it all figured out, their resurgence is one reason I’m betting the total.
While their offense looked crisp against the Magic last night, on the second night of a back-to-back, I have to lean under, even though the Spurs haven’t played since freakin’ Saturday.
The Heat are have played to 11 unders in 20 games as a home favorite this season, the ninth most unders by percentage in the NBA. The Spurs, as a road underdog, have 11 overs and 11 unders, middle of the pack in the league, but have are 6-4-1 to the over with a rest advantage, putting them in the top half of the league. The Heat have hit nine unders in 14 games with a rest disadvantage, the fifth most unders in the league in that scenario by percentage.
Heat games have gone under 226.5 — no higher than 223 actually — in five straight. Spurs games have exceeded just 226.5 (or even 225) twice in their last six efforts.
So give me the under here. It’s 226 at some places, and I’ll play it to 225.5.
Pick: Under 226.5
Pelicans vs. Clippers
Pelicans +7.5, BetMGM
This bet is as much a Pelicans play as it is a Clippers fade. The Clippers are playing their third game in four nights, and find themselves at home for the first time since Jan. 23 when they played the crosstown rival Lakers. Since then, the Clippers have gone 7-1 straight up and 6-2 ATS. They’ve been dominant, but at the end of a lengthy road trip I see a weak spot for them, against a Pelicans team looking for its fourth consecutive win.
New Orleans had a decent road trip of its own, but returned home for one game to take care of business against a hapless Raptors team that has struggled since trading away OG Anunoby and Pascal Siakam.
One thing to note is that Zion Williamson is questionable for New Orleans, however I think he plays. But even if he’s ruled out, I like the Pelicans to cover and I even think there’s some value on the moneyline based on the significant rest advantage for New Orleans.
The Clippers won the last meeting but the previous five head-to-head matchups have all favored the Pelicans. My model shows value on New Orleans down to +7 even with Zion out and +5 with him in.
Pick: Pelicans +7.5
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