Welcome to arguably the most loaded sports slate of the year. The first weekend in May has it all: Kentucky Derby, Golf, championship boxing, UFC 288, NHL Playoffs, plus a full slate of baseball.
Oh right, and the NBA Playoffs rolls on with a doubleheader of second round games on National TV. In the early matchup on ABC, we get Knicks vs Heat Game 3 (3:30 p.m. ET on ABC) and in primetime it’s Warriors vs. Lakers Game 3 (8:30 p.m. ET on ABC).
Both series are knotted up at one game apiece, which ratchets up the pressure a bit more for those matchups. Our Action Network analysts are targeting four best bets today, including plays on the total in both games and spread pick and same game parlay.
Read on for their in-depth analysis and expert picks for Knicks vs. Heat and Warriors vs. Lakers Saturday.
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NBA Odds & Best Bets
| Click on a best bet to skip ahead |
| Knicks vs. Heat Total |
| Knicks vs. Heat Player SGP |
| Warriors vs. Lakers Total |
| Warriors vs. Lakers Spread |
New York Knicks vs. Miami Heat
| Pick | Under 209.5 |
| Book | FanDuel |
| Tipoff | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC |
Chris Baker: I wrote about this matchup in the Game 3 betting guide (you can read that here). Julius Randle’s return to the Knicks provided a massive boost to their offense, but the pace was drastically slower with him back in the lineup.
In Game 1 these teams played at a 95 possession pace, which would still make them the two slowest teams in the NBA if applied to the regular season. But, in Game 2 the pace slowed even further as these teams played at an 88 possession pace. Both teams had transition rates of less than 10%; Heat at 5.7% (1st percentile) and Knicks at 8% (4th percentile).
They were able to clear the total in game two because each team shot extremely well from the field but I would expect the Heat defense to massively improve with Butler’s return. Factor in the potential for negative regression and I like this one to fall under the 209 total. Take the under 209 and play this down to 208.
Pick: Under 209.5 |
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New York Knicks vs. Miami Heat
| Pick | Bam Adebayo 15+ PTS + Heat ML Parlay (+114) |
| Book | FanDuel |
| Tipoff | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC |
Bryan Fonseca: Part of why Bam Adebayo can be frustrating to those who parachute in on the Heat this time of the year is because he might be the most “casuals don’t understand what they’re watching” player in the NBA — and if you don’t believe me, ask Erik Spoelstra.
Regardless, even as he has to — again — defend 1 through 5, protect the paint, try to keep Mitchell Robinson and Isaiah Hartenstein off the boards, screen for ball-handlers, screen for shooters, find cutters and create for himself up against the shot clock, then yes, he should find 15 points. He’s actually hit 15+ in all but one playoff game so far, and his over/under is a reasonable 17.5, that he may hit.
He’s at around 15 field goal attempts per game for the playoffs, and he earned seven free throw attempts last game, most of the playoffs. If he’s hitting his middies, this is all day. If he’s not, he’s getting them up at a high enough clip, so you should be fine — especially if he’s mixing in free throws.
I’ll take him to get 15 again and tack on the Heat moneyline in what could be a tight victory for the homebound Miami squad, who are expected to have Jimmy Butler going forward.
Pick: Adebayo 15+ PTS + Heat ML Parlay |
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Golden State Warriors vs. Los Angeles Lakers
| Pick | Under 228 |
| Book | FanDuel |
| Tipoff | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC |
Matt Moore: I have a few bets on Game 3, which I wrote about extensively in my betting card column. I snuck this bet out with a bizarre garbage time drought late in Game 2, but I’m going to keep playing it.
These two half-court offenses are not good. The Warriors got things going with an explosive Klay Thompson game and the Lakers largely surrendered things. At home, it seems likely the Lakers will look to slow down the Warriors.
Maybe I’m wrong and these two teams are super efficient monsters who haven’t looked it all year. But I’ll take my chances with one of them coming up short and ugly in a game with much better defensive capability than offensive ceiling.
Pick: Under 228 |
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Golden State Warriors vs. Los Angeles Lakers
| Pick | Warriors +3 |
| Book | FanDuel |
| Tipoff | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC |
Austin Wang: I covered this matchup in Game 3 betting guide (you can read it here), but with the Lakers only being three-point favorites, I don’t think this is a smash spot many make it out to be for the home team. I’ve seen narratives reference the Lakers being in a bounce-back spot and the Warriors’ road woes as reasons to back Los Angeles. Favorites of -4 or less are 100-91-7 ATS (0.85, 52.4%), according to SDQL.
However, my data suggests small favorites don’t perform as well in these bounce-back spots. Also, I think the blowout in Game 2 shifted all the momentum and confidence to the Warriors. Sure, Golden State won’t shoot the way it did in Game 2, but I think the Warriors can keep it close and cover the three-point spread.
I make this line Lakers -1, so I see slight value on the road underdog.
Pick: Warriors +3 |
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