Game 6 doesn’t quite have the same ring as Game 7 — especially in the first round — but Friday’s pair of Game 6s are massive for both home teams, who are looking to close out their respective series and move on to Round 2 Sunday. The ESPN doubleheader tips Friday with the Kings and Warriors (8 p.m. ET) going head-to-head at Chase Center followed by the Grizzlies and Lakers (10:30 p.m. ET) in Los Angeles at Crypto.com Arena.
Action Network’s NBA crew has four best bets today, including player props, quarter spread and a play on an over/under in the late game. Check out their expert picks and predictions for for Friday’s matchups below.
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NBA Odds & Best Bets
| Click on a pick to skip ahead |
| Warriors vs. Kings Player Prop |
| Warriors vs. Kings 3Q Spread |
| Warriors vs. Kings 1Q Spread |
| Grizzlies vs. Lakers Total |
Golden State Warriors vs. Sacramento Kings
| Pick | Stephen Curry o31.5 Points (-120) |
| Book | FanDuel |
| Tipoff | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Bryan Fonseca: How could you not?
This series has a good chance of ending tonight, and the chief reason would be Stephen Curry doing Stephen Curry things. His shot diet and volume have been healthy this series. He’s averaging 31.4 points on 22 attempts per game, shooting about 49/37/92 shooting splits.
He’s averaging 12 3-point attempts per game — 37% from deep is low for him, and he hasn’t really exploded from beyond the arc in this series, he’s due — plus he’s getting over five free throw attempts per contest, finding creases on drives thanks to the Kings’ unreliable defense.
He had 34 points to seal the NBA title last year on 57/55/100 shooting splits. I think we get something similar tonight.
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Golden State Warriors vs. Sacramento Kings
| Pick | Warriors -1 3Q |
| Book | FanDuel |
Brandon Anderson: This is one of a few bets I have for tonight’s slate (you can check out all of my picks here). This game tips at 5 p.m. local time, which could make for a quiet start that helps the road team with a crowd not totally tuned in yet. Betting the Warriors third quarter spread gives us multiple outs.
If the Kings lead early, that third quarter is when Golden State will make its comeback push. Or if the Kings are barely hanging around, that’s when we get the Warriors third quarter avalanche. How many times have we seen a home team make that second-half run to close out a series?
We’re also boosted by Kerr’s updated Curry rotations. He’s playing almost the entire first and third quarter now, minus a minute or two in the middle. The Warriors are +19 the last three third quarters.
Take me home, Warriors third quarter. Give me Warriors -1 in the 3Q.
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Golden State Warriors vs. Sacramento Kings
| Pick | Kings 1Q +2.5 |
| Book | FanDuel |
Andrew O’Connor-Watts: I wrote about three bets I like in tonight’s Kings vs Warriors Game 6 betting guide, but the first quarter spread really stands out.
Hot starts have been a recent theme for the Kings –especially away from the Golden 1 Center. In their last 10 road games going back to the regular season, the Kings are 7-3 ATS in the first quarter.
Based on what I saw from the Kings in Game 5, I expect the Warriors to move on to Round 2. The Warriors have consistently won at home despite their significant troubles on the road and I don’t see that changing here with a chance to close out the series.
But in an elimination game that could mean the end of their season, the Kings have value in the first quarter as underdogs down to +1.5. The Kings covered the first quarter in three of the five games this series, with two of the three covers coming after a Warriors win. Expect them to stay hot early especially after their Game 5 loss.
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Memphis Grizzlies vs. Los Angeles Lakers
| Pick | Under 218.5 |
| Book | FanDuel |
| Tipoff | 10:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Tyler Schmidt: I wrote about this matchup in the Grizzlies vs Lakers Game 6 betting guide, but I’m going to focus on the total in a game between two teams that will be in desperation mode Friday night. The under 219 points is also drawing 93% of the money as both teams are averaging less than 110 points per game during the first five games.
Even though the Lakers are getting a ton of love as a home favorite, their offense is difficult to trust especially on the perimeter. During the regular season, they shot only 34.6% from behind the arc, which was tied for the sixth-lowest in the league. The Grizzlies may have lost a few interior players, but they are still a dangerous team to play against.
Instead of taking a side in a close-out game, we’re going to look at the total points line and take the under. Combining all five games, the average points scored has been 218.5 points and that is including an overtime in Game 3. The Pace in this matchup has been below 100 as well, so we can expect a more grind it out style of playoff game. I grabbed this at 219.5, but I would take this under down to 217.5.
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