What a way to kick off this year’s NBA Play-In Tournament.
The Brooklyn Nets and Minnesota Timberwolves both advanced to the NBA Playoffs in spectacular fashion on the first night of games. On Night 2, the Charlotte Hornets, Atlanta Hawks, San Antonio Spurs and New Orleans Pelicans each face elimination in a double-header of must-win games.
The winners will go on to play on Friday and the losers will, well, we hear Cancun is nice this time of year.
Our NBA experts are all over both games and see some player props will value, plus a play on one of Wednesday’s underdogs. Take a look at their in-depth analysis and best bets for Wednesday’s games below.
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NBA Odds & Picks
| Click on a game to skip ahead | |
| Hornets vs. Hawks Prop | 7 p.m. ET |
| Hornets vs. Hawks Moneyline | 7 p.m. ET |
| Spurs vs. Pelicans Props | 9:30 p.m. ET |
Charlotte Hornets vs. Atlanta Hawks
| Pick | Clint Capela Over 12.5 Rebounds |
| Book | WynnBet |
| Tipoff | 7 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Matt Moore: Capela averaged 13 rebounds playing just 27.9 minutes in four games against the Hornets. So if we pull out his minutes to over 33 or more, we’re well on pace for this number.
The Hornets place a switching scheme, which puts their bigs further and further out on the edge. That leaves the inside vulnerable against a good rebounder like Capela with no bigs to box him out.
According to Second Spectrum Data, Capela has a 16.1 RAP+ (Rebound Adjusted Percentage+) against the Hornets, a metric that defines your success rate relative to positioning and how often you go for a rebound. To put that in perspective, Nikola Jokic leads the league this season with a RAP+ of 7.9.
Even with average Pace and so many 3-pointers from the Hornets, I expect Capela to rack up 13 or more boards in this matchup. You can play 12.5 (-135) at WynnBet or 13.5 (+100) at BetMGM, but I would not play this past 14.
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Charlotte Hornets vs. Atlanta Hawks
| Pick | Hornets Moneyline (+168) |
| Book | FanDuel |
| Tipoff | 7 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Brandon Anderson: When Gordon Hayward was sidelined after the All-Star Break, I wondered if it was curtains for these Charlotte Hornets. Hayward had been so important for this team, and without much defense to be found, it didn’t seem like Charlotte would have enough offense either without Hayward’s layered playmaking and versatile skill set.
Instead, the Hornets have gone the other direction. They’re 14-8 since the break, essentially all without Hayward, and they have the No. 2 Offensive Rating during that span per NBA Advanced Stats. They’re also quietly up to 18th on defense and 10th in Net Rating. I won’t make too much of those ratings because of the number of tanking teams late, but even a jump to average defense is meaningful for this team. The offensive leap has been notable, too.
Without Hayward, Charlotte has ramped up its 3s and turned more of the offense than ever over to LaMelo Ball, and the sophomore has been ready. He’s averaging 4.4 3s per game on 48% over the last 14 games, while Terry Rozier and Miles Bridges are also over 40% since the break. Atlanta offers little reason to believe they’ll stop Charlotte.
On the other hand, the Hornets defense has been surprisingly good against the Hawks, mostly because they defend Trae Young about as well as anyone in the league. Charlotte will look to have Rozier and others hound Young all over the court, force the ball out of his hands and deny him the ball so he can’t get it back. The Hawks’ offense just isn’t as dangerous when Young isn’t doing everything, especially with John Collins sidelined.
These teams feel pretty evenly matched to me. I think the game is near a coin flip and likely comes down to whichever team’s 3s fall. We’re getting +168 on the Hornets’ moneyline though, an implied 37% that makes Atlanta close to a 2-1 favorite.
I’m not sure Atlanta’s home crowd is much of a factor here, and I think that’s too much respect for the Hawks. I’ll take my chances with the Hornets keeping their season alive.
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San Antonio Spurs vs. New Orleans Pelicans
| Pick | Dejounte Murray Over 17.5 REB + AST (-105) | Triple Double (+425) |
| Book | BetMGM |
| Tipoff | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Joe Dellera: Dejounte Murray is the Spurs brightest young star and has been incredible this season and has been a prop darling.
One of our favorite plays this season was Dejounte to go over 17.5 rebounds and assists and this is a play that we will run back tonight. Although the Pelicans are a Pace down spot, the Spurs still play at the third-fastest Pace in the league and their Adjusted Defensive Rating is just 19th in the league.
On the season, Murray has cleared his RA line in 53% of games including 3 of 4 against the Pelicans. The thing about the postseason is the stars generally play more minutes out of necessity — especially here when it is literally win or go home.
Last season, the Grizzlies defeated the Spurs in the No. 9 vs. No 10 game and Murray posted a 10 points, 11 assists and 13 rebounds in 38.9 minutes. That outpaces his season average for minutes and I expect him to play at least 38 minutes tonight which is about four minutes more than his regular season average. This season, Murray has only played 38 or more minutes in 13 regular season games but he has cleared 17.5 RA in 10 of those games.
Additionally, he has recorded a triple double in six those games — it’s absolutely worth a sprinkle. Triple-double odds are a bit all over the place, but the consensus is +425 and if you have the ability to build this I was able to grab 10+ assists and 10+ Rebounds on Bet365 for +600 odds.
Bet on Dejounte Murray to show out tonight on a national stage.
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