NBA Odds, Picks, Predictions
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| Kings at Pacers | 7 p.m. ET |
| Warriors at Heat | 7:30 p.m. ET |
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Kings at Pacers
| Pick | Davion Mitchell Over 2.5 Turnovers (+100) |
| Book | DraftKings |
| Tipoff | 7 p.m. ET |
| TV | League Pass |
Brandon Anderson: You could say these teams are a bit familiar with each other. If you haven’t been paying attention, you might even think half the players are wearing the wrong jerseys when you tune in tonight. Tyrese Haliburton and Buddy Hield are Pacers now; Domantas Sabonis is a King. It was one of the trade-deadline blockbusters, and it’s still taking a minute to get a handle on.
One reason the Kings traded Haliburton goes all the way back to the night of the draft, when Sacramento used its lottery pick on standout Baylor guard Davion Mitchell — one of the stars on the Bears’ national championship team. Mitchell is a tenacious defender and a high-energy, character player who can help any team, but he was always a curious addition to this particular roster since it already had Haliburton and De’Aaron Fox at the time.
Turns out that didn’t last.
The Haliburton-Sabonis trade likely paves the way toward a starter spot next for Mitchell in the future, next to Fox. But tonight it means even more, because both Fox and Sabonis are out injured, which means we’re about to get a whole lot of Mitchell out of sheer necessity.
Mitchell started the last two games with Fox sidelined, and has played more than 81 minutes combined against two of the league’s toughest teams, Boston and Phoenix. And he’s been pretty good! Last time out against the Suns, Mitchell put up 28 points and nine assists, both career highs for the rookie. And now that Sabonis is out tonight, too, Mitchell’s usage and role should only increase.
That means more time on the ball, more shots, more passing and handling … and more turnovers.
Mitchell had one other career-high in his last game: Five turnovers. He had four turnovers against the Celtics, too. Those games were two of his four-highest turnover nights of his NBA career. And that’s really not even a critique! Rookies turn the ball over, especially when they’re suddenly given the ball and asked to do everything for a fledgling roster.
This line feels way off to me. We need only three turnovers from Davion to hit, and even though Indiana doesn’t force as many turnovers as Boston and Phoenix, Mitchell will have the ball all game — and he just isn’t a good enough handler or decision-maker yet to keep the stat sheet clean.
I wish we could play an escalator here for an even higher line, but I’ll take the even odds at over 2.5 turnovers and even play two units while +100 is out there. Otherwise, I’ll play to -150 if needed.
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Warriors at Heat
| Pick | Under 213.5 |
| Book | BetMGM |
| Tipoff | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | League Pass |
Raheem Palmer: If you listened to our Wednesday Workshop podcast featuring myself and my colleague Matt Moore, you’ll know that I gave this under out at 214.5 — but there’s still some value here down to 209.
I also gave out the Heat at -5.5, but -6.5 is the limit.
The Warriors are a sinking ship playing their third game in four nights against the Heat, who come off a disappointing 113-106 loss to the 76ers without Joel Embiid and James Harden. This is an ideal bounce-back spot against a Warriors team that lost to the Magic and will be missing Steph Curry.
The Warriors are just 2-6 with an Offensive Rating of just 108.5 without Curry this season. With Curry on the floor, they’re scoring 115.8 points per 100 possessions. They’ll be facing a Heat team that’s fourth in Defensive Rating (108.2) in their non-garbage time minutes according to Cleaning the Glass.
Nonetheless, I’m not expecting an offensive improvement from the Warriors here.
While the Warriors do struggle offensively without Curry, they still have one of the best defenses in the league, holding opposing teams to just 107.1 points per 100 possessions — third among NBA teams. The Heat are just 13th in half court offensive point per 100 possessions (96.6), so they’re not a team that can run away and hide by putting up big offensive numbers.
The Heat also don’t play fast-paced games, ranking 27th in Pace (96.1) and 22nd in Offensive Length of Possession (15 seconds) while also ranking dead last in Defensive Length of Possession (15 second) — a testament to making opposing offense use more of the shot clock and take tough shot.
The Warriors also don’t play a fast pace, ranking 15th in Pace (98.14) and 15th in Offensive Length of Possession (14.5 seconds). All that said, this feels like a great spot for the under.
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