The Western Conference looks to be loaded again this year.
Last season, 10 teams finished with 46 or more wins, the first time in at least 20 seasons. This season, those same 10 teams are trying, plus the Grizzlies return to health, the Rockets are young, and the Spurs have Victor Wembanyama.
It’s a mess of a conference, but that means there is undoubtedly value.
Phoenix Suns
I covered it in my coach of the year piece, but I think Phoenix has the potential to be much better under coach Mike Budenholzer. Last year, the Suns had the sixth highest turnover rate in the entire NBA. Over the last two seasons, they have taken the second and most shots from midrange, which is the least efficient area of the floor.
Cleaningtheglass measures location-based effective field goal percentage, which is a measure of how your team would have shot from the field if they shot league average based on your shot distribution. This measure is good for evaluating overall shot quality. Last season, the Suns were 28th, and they were 30th the year before. Even though the offense finished 9th, there is actual room for improvement.
As a coach, Budenholzer has employed some consistent philosophies in each stop. On the defensive end, they have walled off the rim, with his teams being top five in rim frequency every year in Milwaukee, and his last two years in Atlanta. They gave this up by sacrificing teams shooting a lot of 3s. On offense, he always emphasized a high volume of 3-point field goals, which helped his teams get to a solid offensive rating for most of his time in Milwaukee.
The Suns may have more offensive talent than Bud has ever coached before. Devin Booker and Kevin Durant are lethal 3-point shooters, and I imagine they will both take more shots from three this year. Last year, they didn’t have a real point guard, which led to a high turnover rate. This season, they brought in Tyus Jones and Monte Morris, two of the best point guards in the NBA at not turning the ball over. I think they have one of the five best offenses in the NBA now.
The Suns finished sixth in the West last season. They don’t own their pick this season and will be pushing hard to make it out of the play-in mix yet again, as they did before.
The race for the second-best team in the West is somewhat wide open, as Denver and Minnesota could be worse, and it’s unclear how Dallas and New Orleans will come together with new rosters. I think the Suns are locked into a top-six seed, and I have them currently projected to finish somewhere between second and fifth.
Bet: 1u on Conference Seed under 6.5 at +105 on DraftKings.
The Play-In
I grabbed odds from five sportsbooks that have play-in odds for the Western Conference and took at the looks of the best odds for each one.
When the Trailblazers, Jazz, and Thunder are removed (three teams I put at a 0% chance to make the play-in), these teams’ odds to make the playoffs add up to 4.01. We used this same methodology last year to bet the Kings to miss the playoffs, and the same logic holds here.
The books have such little hold here, which means there MUST be value on one of these teams to make the play-in. The tricky part is figuring out which one.
New Orleans Pelicans Play-In (+155 at .5u) (bet down +130 at .35u)
For starters, the Pelicans have one of the biggest differences between FanDuel and other books, which makes this likely EV. The Pelicans have also made the play-in for three straight seasons.
While the addition of Dejounte Murray is supposed to help them, I’m not sure it will be in the ways they are hoping. For the past two seasons, their success has been driven by the defense. The defense has been driven by some of the worst 3-point shooting against, excellent defensive rebounding, and forcing turnovers.
In particular, teams shot a bottom-two percentage from 3 the last two seasons, after opponents the 6th best rates the season before. Studies have shown it’s hard to affect opponents’ 3-point shooting, and it’s bound to regress.
The team’s rebounding will be a lot worse, as their two best rebounders by position are gone (Jonas Valanciunas and Naji Marshall). Their bench also thrived defensively, and with Marshall and Dyson Daniels now gone, that may not be the case.
The hope is that the offense will improve enough to make up for that, but I’m not sure that’s the case. As Zion Williamson’s athleticism has waned, he hasn’t been the same level of offensive force. None of their offensive players are truly elite or hyper-efficient, just solid. Does that make a great offense? It remains to be seen.
They profile right around average in offense and defense. They have too many talented players to truly tank, but not enough star power to win any game. The Brandon Ingram situation may become untenable. To me, this just profiles as a clear play-in team.
Sacramento Kings
The Kings made a huge splash in free agency with trading for DeMar DeRozan. DeRozan is a big name, but not a great fit for this team. He isn’t the best off the ball, and his game doesn’t seem to mesh well with Domantas Sabonis. It will lead to more midrange shots, but not more from three or at the rim, which was more helpful.
Last year, the team dropped from first to 14th on offense. Part of that came from generating fewer shots at the rim because teams had a better understanding of their scheme. Opponents are not afraid of the shooters here and parked their centers at the rim more to deter shots there. This team was mediocre last season and didn’t improve in any meaningful way.
The defense was better last season, but with their defensive personnel, 18th is probably the upper limit. They don’t have any great perimeter defenders or a rim presence, and other than De’Aaron Fox, they don’t force a lot of turnovers. The one strength is defensive rebounding with Sabonis, but that is also slated to regress off of his best rebounding season ever.
The West is crowded, and I have the Kings as the 11th-best team as things currently stand. This year’s draft is loaded, and they keep their pick if they fall in the top 12. If they are too far back, they may try to keep that pick instead of pushing, and it is some incentive to finish closer to 10th than 9th. This doesn’t look like a playoff team to me, but once again, we are getting positive odds for them to miss the playoffs.
Bet: .6u on Kings to miss the playoffs at +160 on Caesar’s or BetMGM
Los Angeles Lakers Over 42.5 Wins, -115, .6u (would bet at 43.5)
Golden State Warriors over 42.5 wins, -112, 1.1u (would bet at 43.5)
I’m grouping these two teams because the most basic logic for both of these teams applies. They both have an aging veteran who is trying to compete for one last title. They would give almost anything up to make the playoffs, and will probably make a trade in the middle of the season to get there.
For them to go under, it would require either a big dip in performance from the superstar or a slew of injuries to them or their teammates. Ultimately, for both of these teams, I evaluate the chances of that happening as being 40% at the max, which is why I’m betting on both of these lines.
For the Warriors specifically, Stephen Curry is still playing at the level of an all-time great. Throughout his career, the Warriors have been an elite offense with him on the floor, and that continued last year. Draymond Green is the same way on the defensive end. Last year, Klay Thompson was terrible for them, hurting their defense by not staying with his man, and their offense by taking poor midrange shots.
The additions of Buddy Hield, De’Anthony Melton, and Kyle Anderson bring different looks and strengths to the team that can be used in different situations. Brandin Podziemski was a productive rookie last season and should be even better in year 2, with an expected jump in both efficiency and usage.
Jonathan Kuminga already made a meaningful improvement last year, and he will either continue to improve this season as a ball handler or could be traded as their most valuable trade piece.
Andrew Wiggins has been poor for two straight seasons, and it came out this offseason that it was likely due to the burden of caring and worrying for his sick father, who just died. It’s truly awful, but it also means that Wiggins could return to being at least close to the player he was during the year they won the title, where he was a top-20 small forward.
Ultimately, this team’s success is contingent on Curry’s health and effectiveness, but if he stays at that level, I see no way they won’t top this number easily.
The Lakers are not as clear-cut, mostly because of the horrific depth.
Their two best bench players, Gabe Vincent and Jared Vanderbilt, are returning from injuries and may not be the same.
Other than that, the rest of their bench is completely unproven and might not be good. But the starting lineup works (+6.6 net rating), and last year they only started for 24 games (and went 18-6 in those games).
It has become clear through reporting that the Lakers despised playing for Darvin Ham and had no confidence in him, and JJ Redick is the type of coach who can get through to them. Last season, Anthony Davis played a ton of minutes but wasn’t at his best defensively.
I anticipate that changing under Redick, who he connects with more. LeBron James is the most important factor, with both his health and effectiveness. But as long as he stays healthy and plays enough games, this team will push for the playoffs and clear this number.