Ja Morant made us eat our words last night, but Brook Lopez was an easy cash so we went one-for-two. We’ll be looking for the clean sweep in today’s NBA Game 4s, which feature two home teams looking to tie up their series at two games apiece.
We’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Below, I have laid out two prop bets that I’m playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
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NBA Player Props & Picks
Spencer Dinwiddie, Over 2.5 Assists (-150)
| Mavericks vs. Suns | Suns -2 |
| Time | TV | 3:30 p.m. ET | ESPN |
| Best Book | DraftKings |
After a big victory in Game 2, the Dallas Mavericks look to tie up this series with a home win today against the Phoenix Suns. They are slight underdogs, but they play very well at home with a 29-12 regular-season record and only one home loss in Game 1 against the Utah Jazz (when they didn’t have Luka Doncic).
This Spencer Dinwiddie prop has been available since this Suns series has started. He has tallied more than 2.5 assists in two out of three games played as he has had trouble scoring the ball against this sound Suns defense. The pace will continue to be slow, but Dinwiddie will have plenty of chances to hit the over at such a low number.
Averaging only 7.7 points per game in this series while shooting 32% from the field, Dinwiddie has had to rely on his peripherals to make an impact on the game. He has done a great job of that besides Game 2 where the Mavericks lost by 20, and no one really did anything besides Doncic.
If this prop doesn’t provide enough value for you, please take a look at the rebounds/assists prop for Dinwiddie at 5.5 and -135. Dinwiddie is projected for 4.8 assists and four rebounds tonight according to our model. I would feel comfortable taking this at 3.5 assists and love this peripheral spot for Dinwiddie.
Joel Embiid, Over 10.5 Rebounds (-145)
| 76ers vs. Heat | 76ers -2 |
| Time | TV | 8 p.m. ET | TNT |
| Best Book | DraftKings |
The big story for this Philadelphia 76ers and Miami Heat series has been the return of Joel Embiid. He returned in Game 3, and despite not playing very well, Embiid finished with 18 points and 11 rebounds in 36 minutes. Health is still a concern, but it is hard to see him not playing tonight with a chance to tie it up.
Embiid is currently listed as questionable and will be playing likely around the same minutes or more as Game 3. It is impossible to look at our model and not love the output for Embiid tonight. Picking just one prop for him is difficult!
If we combine the playoffs and regular season, Embiid averaged 22.3 points and 13 rebounds per game in four games against the Heat this season. He shot only 41.9% from the field as the Heat led the league in fewest points allowed in the paint this season. Embiid is a mismatch all over the court, and this is a tough matchup to score in, but he has shown rebounding upside.
Embiid has hit this over in five of his seven playoff games. He also averaged 11.7 rebounds per game this season, which is the fifth consecutive year he has averaged double-digit rebounds. A fully healthy Embiid or not, he has shown he can reach this over prop with ease.