We’ve got a pretty busy nine-game slate on tap tonight. The Sixers and Celtics arguably headline tonight’s action, but I’m turning instead to another Eastern Conference matchup that may have playoff significance. The books continue to undervalue the Cleveland Cavaliers, and we’re going to take advantage of that here.
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Parlay YTD: 0-2 (-0.5u)
Straight Bets YTD: 6-1 (+1.87u)
Leg #1. Evan Mobley 1+ Made Three
Related Straight Bet: Evan Mobley o0.5 Made Threes (-110 at DK Sportsbook)
Straight Bet Size: .25u
The NBA knows that three-pointers are how you beat the Miami Heat. You aren’t scoring on them in the paint — they allow the second-fewest points per game there (40.3). As a result, opposing offenses attempt the most (41) and make the third-most (13.7) threes per game against Miami. To give you some perspective, every single Denver Nugget who played at least 10 minutes made at least one three-pointer against Miami on Monday.
Enter Evan Mobley. The rookie is an integral part of Cleveland’s offense, but he isn’t integral enough to draw lockdown coverage all night. However, he is integral enough to attempt 1.9 three-pointers per game. While he makes just 0.6 per contest, we’re getting him at near-even odds to make a single trey.
The Cavaliers have used Mobley as a small forward, power forward, and center this season. However, with Jarrett Allen and Lauri Markkanen active, Mobley tends to see more run at the three spot. That puts him in a solid position against Miami’s defense, as they have permitted the fourth-most made threes per game to small forwards (3.6) over their last seven games.
That said, it’s worth noting Bam Adebayo and Dewayne Dedmon have been listed as questionable for tonight’s matchup. It’ll be difficult for the Heat to limit the Cavs in the paint without either of them, but we’re targeting totals low enough such that their absences wouldn’t sink us.
Leg #2. Ricky Rubio o4.5 Assists
Related Straight Bet: Ricky Rubio o5.5 Assists (-125 at DK Sportsbook)
Straight Bet Size: .25u
Rubio has been fantastic lately. He finished with a +30 against the Dallas Mavericks on Monday, and he recorded six assists in that outing. He has finished with fewer than five dimes just once since Collin Sexton went down with a season-ending injury. Rubio ranks second on the Cavaliers in assist percentage (33.5%), slotting in behind only Darius Garland (34.8%).
We’re targeting Rubio instead of Garland because that’s what the numbers tell us to do: over the last seven games, the Heat have allowed the third-fewest assists per game to point guards (6.7) but the second-most to shooting guards (5.7). Garland has spent all of his minutes this season at the one, so if he is on the floor with Rubio, the Spaniard is working as the two. Rubio has spent just over half of his minutes at the two this season, too.
Leg #3. Isaac Okoro 1+ Made Three
Related Straight Bet: N/A
We’ll target another Cavalier to make a three here as well. Isaac Okoro has made a three-pointer in his last four games, and he averages 3.8 attempts per game. Like Mobley, he has struggled a bit with accuracy, but we just need him to sink one to cash our parlay.
Okoro rotates between the two and the three for Cleveland, which sets him up nicely against the Heat’s defense. I already mentioned that Miami tends to struggle against opposing small forwards, but they have also allowed shooting guards to hit the 12th-most threes per game (3.5) to boot. Also, Okoro should continue to see plenty of usage with Dean Wade and Cedi Osman out with injuries.
Leg #4. Cavaliers +10.5
Related Straight Bet: N/A
Lastly, let’s cap this off with a teased-down spread. The Cavaliers should keep this one within single digits, especially if the Heat don’t have either Butler or Adebayo. They’re currently just 4.5-point underdogs, but I want the extra points for a bit of breathing room. However, it’s worth noting that the Cavaliers are currently the NBA’s second-best team against the spread. They have covered in 77.8% of their road games, good for the NBA’s best mark.
Total Odds: +475 at DK Sportsbook
Parlay Bet Size: .25u
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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.