After a few consecutive weeks where overs have been hitting at a high rate, NBA totals went 29-26 (52.7%) to the under in Week 12.
Scoring continues to increase as average points scored per game have been north of 220 in the previous two weeks.
The NBA updated its COVID-19 protocols, reducing the number of days these players are required to quarantine, provided that those players are asymptomatic and meet other testing standards. We are seeing these players get back to the court sooner, and absences are slowing down in comparison to the peak in December.
Nonetheless, there is still a lot of unpredictability, so continue to proceed with caution when betting these games and watch closely for injury and COVID news.
Here is the weekly market update through Week 12 (week ending Sunday Jan. 9).
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Key Totals Trends to Watch
- Unders went 29-26 (52.7%) in Week 12. The last week where unders outpaced overs was back in Week 8 (Dec. 6 – Dec. 12). This brings the season-to-date over/under record to 288-303-4 (48.7%).
- Week 12 continued to see higher scoring games with an average of 220 points scored per game. The season-to-date average points scored per game is 216.7, and there have only been three weeks where average points scored was 220 or more. Fewer players are in health and safety protocols, and the offense continues to improve.
- The average closing total was 221.5 in Week 12, the highest it has been since Week 1. The market has caught up to the higher scoring games and improved offense as of late. In Week 12, there were eight games that closed with a total of 230 or higher. Those games went 4-4 (50%) to the over.
- We saw a slight decrease in fouls and free throw attempts in Week 12 after five consecutive weeks of those numbers trending upwards. Perhaps free throw attempts hit their peak, but we will continue to monitor these numbers. It appears the officials are not swallowing their whistles as much as they did earlier in the season.
Teams with highest scoring games (220 and above)
- Hornets: Avg: 115.5 | Opp Avg: 116.3 | Total: 231.8
- Lakers: Avg: 112.0 | Opp Avg: 112.5 | Total: 224.5
- Rockets: Avg: 107.9 | Opp Avg: 116.5 | Total: 224.4
- Jazz: Avg: 115.7 | Opp Avg: 107.1 | Total: 222.8
- Kings: Avg: 109.5 | Opp Avg: 113.1 | Total: 222.6
- Hawks: Avg: 110.8 | Opp Avg: 111.5 | Total: 222.3
Teams with lowest scoring games (209 and below)
- Thunder: Avg: 99.6 | Opp Avg: 107.3 | Total: 206.9
- Mavericks: Avg: 105.8 | Opp Avg: 103.3 | Total: 209.1
- Knicks: Avg: 104.0 | Opp Avg: 105.3 | Total: 209.3
- Cavaliers: Avg: 107.2 | Opp Avg: 102.4 | Total: 209.6
Best Over Teams
- Heat: 25-14-1 (64.1%)
- Raptors: 23-14 (62.2%)
- Rockets: 25-16 (61.0%)
- Hornets: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
- Spurs: 22-16-1 (57.9%)
Best Under Teams
- Mavericks: 13-27 (32.5%)
- Warriors: 13-25-1 (34.2%)
- Cavaliers: 15-25 (37.5%)
- Thunder: 15-24 (38.5%)
- 76ers: 15-22-1 (40.5%)
Recent Under Trends
- Nuggets: 7-2 to the under in last nine games
- Mavericks: 6-1 to the under in last seven games (10-1 to the under in last 11 home games)
- Knicks: 6-2 to the under in last eight games
- Thunder: 5-1 to the under in last six games
- 76ers: 6-1 to the under in last six games at home
Recent Over Trends
- Rockets: 18-3 to the over in last 21 games
- Raptors: 10-1 to the over in last 11 games
- Heat: 8-1 to the over in last nine games
- Timberwolves: 8-1 to the over in last nine games on the road