Last season’s in-season tournament (now known as the NBA Cup) was a spectacle, as the Lakers and LeBron James captured the first tournament. Some stats on what happened:
- In the East, the teams that finished the season as the 1, 2, 3 and 6 seeds advanced to the group stage.
- In the West, it was the 6, 7, 8 and 10 seeds. The West was more compact throughout the whole season, and it was evident in the tournament.
- The Finals were not between the two best regular season teams, but between two teams that were peaking at the right time. Indiana’s offense had taken the league by storm while the Lakers were healthy and playing their best lineup.
- The teams in the quarterfinals were seeded 3, 6, 7, and 8 at the end of the season. We should expect play-in quality teams to do better than expected in this format.
- The first few games were chaotic, while later games went more as expected. In the first four game days of the tournament, teams that were favored by 1-5 points went 7-10, for a win percentage of 41%. From then until the knockout round, they went 9-4 (69%). For the entire season, teams won 57% of the time.
- Favorites went undefeated on the final day of group play.
- The teams with the biggest home-court advantage — Utah and Denver — carried through here. Denver went 2-0 at home and 1-1 against the spread, while Utah went 2-0 against the spread and 1-1 in a three-point loss to Phoenix.
After gathering odds from sportsbooks for each team to win their book, I found that the books either have very little hold or are giving you value for the groups. In these circumstances, there are always picks with value. I have three group winners and one cup MVP bet I’m making.
East Group C:
Teams: Boston Celtics, Cleveland Cavaliers, Atlanta Hawks, Chicago Bulls, Washington Wizards
Bet: Celtics -130 on FanDuel/BetMGM, 1.5u
This is easily the biggest bet we will have on an in-season tournament group winner because this bet is for sure positive EV based on available data.
FanDuel has already posted lines on Boston’s first game, home against Atlanta, and it is -700/500. Its second game is home against Cleveland, who it was 8.5 and 11-point favorites at home last year. Cleveland will be better this year, but Boston will still be a decent-size favorite at home against them. After these first two, it plays at Washington and at Chicago, which are likely favorable wins.
For this to be just neutral value, Boston would have to be -200 fair in its game against Cleveland, which is almost certainly too low. Big favorites were nearly undefeated in their first two games last year, and that’s likely to remain the same. There is just a lot of value on this line for a team that dominated last regular season and will be good this year as well.
West Group A:
Teams: Minnesota Timberwolves, Houston Rockets, Sacramento Kings, LA Clippers, Portland Trailblazers
Bet: Kings +350 on FanDuel/BetMGM, .2u
The Kings schedule: home Minnesota, at Clippers, at Portland, home Rockets. Last year, the Kings won their group.
This bet will end up being largely contingent on whether they can win the first game versus Minnesota. I recently covered how I’m not a Kings optimist, but the Kings have won three straight in Minnesota and should have a decent chance here.
Even more importantly, these odds are really long. I put Sacramento just around 30% to win the group, with the Clippers and Portland not being real factors. We saw that favorites on the last day of group day went undefeated, and Sacramento could try to run up the score to win its group if need be. The Kings also won their group with Minnesota last season in this exact fashion, and their players tend to be healthy, which eliminates uncertainty as we get closer.
West Group B:
Teams: Oklahoma City Thunder, Phoenix Suns, Los Angeles Lakers, San Antonio Spurs, Utah Jazz
Bet: Lakers +420 on FanDuel for .25u
LeBron James Cup MVP +5500 on DraftKings for .25u
LeBron was clearly extremely motivated to win the in-season cup last year. The Lakers only played two close games the entire tournament, and he easily won MVP. This season, they open at San Antonio, followed by home Jazz.
Those are the two weaker games in the group, and getting the Jazz at home is helpful. They also have a new coach and I think LeBron will want to win this again to help cement his legacy even more.
We just saw this in the Olympics — LeBron and Anthony Davis can summon up incredible performances when they are spaced out and for single games.
The Lakers’ difficulty is maintaining that for an entire season, as well as their weak bench. But for this tournament, it’s only for seven games that are spread out, and the Lakers won’t need their bench as much and will hammer their starters to take back-to-back titles.