A pair of pivotal Game 4s await us tonight as the Bucks and Warriors hope to take commanding 3-1 leads in their series.
The big news on this two-game slate is the status of Ja Morant, who is doubtful to play with a knee injury. Monitor his status before the game, as all Grizzlies props are off the board as of Monday morning.
We’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Below, I have laid out two prop bets that I’m playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
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Monday NBA Player Props
Al Horford, Over 8.5 Rebounds (-155)
| Bucks vs. Celtics | Bucks -1 |
| Time | TV | 7:30 p.m. ET | TNT |
| Best Book | BetMGM |
After a narrow victory in Game 3 which resulted in a Bucks win to take the series lead 2-1, the betting market expects another tight one tonight. Milwaukee is a 1-point home favorite.
Al Horford’s production took a major dip during the regular season when playing alongside Robert Williams. However, this series has gone the complete opposite. Horford has been a monster, especially on the glass. He is averaging 12.3 rebounds per game and has posted at least 10 boards in all three games.
Not only is Horford being very productive on the court, but he is also playing 37.3 minutes per game, mainly because he’s guarding Bucks superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo. The extra playing time has given Horford more opportunity to get over this prop line. Expect heavy minutes again tonight.
BetMGM has over 9.5 at +115, while FanDuel has over 8.5 at -143. The MGM line at those numbers is the better one.
Regardless of which line you take, I would take this up to 10.5 rebounds.
Otto Porter Jr., Under 3.5 Assists (-180)
| Warriors vs. Grizzlies | Warriors -10.5 |
| Time | TV | 10 p.m. ET | TNT |
| Best Book | DraftKings |
Wondering why the Warriors are double-digit favorites tonight? Ja Morant is doubtful to play with a knee injury which is going to make it quite tough for the Grizzlies. However, during the regular season, the Grizzlies went 20-5 without Morant. This is just a different situation against a very healthy Warriors team.
There are no lines right now on any of the Grizzlies players, so we will need to look to the Warriors side of the ball. This Otto Porter Jr. assists prop is showing as the best line in our model for any Warriors player right now. It’s a lot of juice to pay at -180, but I would take this down to 2.5 assists tonight.
The Warriors lead the league in assists during the playoffs with 29.4 per game, which is nearly three more than the next closest team. They always pass the ball extremely well and have a very fun to watch, free-flowing offense.
Porter Jr. may be more productive without Gary Payton II in the lineup, but this is high.
Our model has Porter Jr. projected for only 1.8 assists tonight, which is far lower than the 3.5 line on DraftKings sportsbook. He is also dealing with a bit of a hand injury and is probable to play.
While his assist numbers have ticked up in the playoffs a bit, he’s averaging just 1.5 per game for the season.