After an impressive post-All-Star break surge, the Minnesota Lynx were able to climb to the second seed by the end of the 2024 regular season.
Now, the Lynx will be matched up with Diana Taurasi and the No. 7-seeded Phoenix Mercury in the first round of the WNBA playoffs.
Could this be the last time we see Taurasi, the “GOAT,” on a professional basketball court? At 42 years old, Taurasi has performed at a high level; she posted roughly 15 points, four rebounds, and three assists per game this season.
Still, “Father Time” is undoubtedly around the corner.
Will the Mercury play inspired basketball knowing this could be Taurasi’s “last dance,” or will the Lynx shut the door on any hopes of the Mercury making a miraculous run?
Mercury vs. Lynx Picks & Prediction: WNBA Series Preview
As alluded to above, it has been Minnesota’s league since the W’s return in mid-August.
Except for the Lynx’s last game of the regular season, which they punted because they had already locked down the No. 2 seed and wanted to avoid any untimely injuries, Minnesota had won 13 of their 14 games since the extended break.
In that stretch, they have the second-best net rating (+11.0) and the highest effective field goal percentage (54.5%) while holding opponents to just 42.1% shooting from the floor (second in the WNBA).
Minnesota’s biggest, and only, weakness this season has been its consistency on the glass; the Lynx rank 10th (out of 12 teams) in total rebounding percentage and 11th in defensive rebounding percentage.
The struggle to dominate the glass, or perform at an even moderate level in that facet of the game, could be the eventual downfall of this elite Lynx team.
However, that potential shortcoming will not impact this first-round matchup at all.
Let’s get more into that later; we have to give Taurasi and the Mercury their flowers.
After an awful 9-31 season in 2023, the Mercury strung together a near-.500 season this year, including a playoff berth.
Phoenix desperately needed a primary scorer to join the likes of Brittney Griner and Taurasi; it was able to scoop Kahleah Copper, who has posted an impressive 21.1 points per game, and Natasha Cloud.
Still, the Mecury have been one of the worst defensive teams in the W, which has made their path to relevancy an uphill battle.
So, what’s our best bet for this Lynx vs. Mercury series preview?
Best Bet for Mercury vs. Lynx – Correct Order: G1 MIN, G2 MIN (-260, FanDuel)
There’s no way around it: this is a disastrous matchup for the Mercury.
Phoenix has been the worst team on the glass this season, ranking last in rebounding percentage despite having a dominant interior force in 6-foot-9 center Griner.
Conversely, it is an incredibly ideal matchup for Minnesota, whose only real weakness is its inability to consistently pull down opponent misses.
But it gets even worse for Phoenix.
The Mercury have allowed opponents to shoot the most 3-pointers at a 34.2% clip, which places them seventh in opponent 3P%.
And Phoenix just so happens to be facing the best 3-point shooting team.
Minnesota has shot the lights out all season, knocking down 38% of its attempts from deep on a substantial volume (23.9 3PAs per game).
As always, it is never entertaining to bet on heavy favorites. But, sometimes, it is the play that provides the best value, and we will forever chase that.