Knicks vs. Warriors Odds
| Knicks Odds | +7.5 |
| Warriors Odds | -7.5 |
| Over/Under | 235 |
| Time | 10 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
| Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here. | |
The New York Knicks have a better record than the Golden State Warriors and we are a month into the season. Kudos to you if you had that on your preseason NBA Bingo card.
The Knicks have won their last two games against the Utah Jazz and the Denver Nuggets without Nikola Jokic. Meanwhile the Warriors just dropped their last game to the Phoenix Suns despite Stephen Curry scoring 50 points.
Which team has the edge here in this nationally televised showdown?
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Knicks Haven’t Quite Figured it Out Yet
The Knicks have been a rollercoaster to watch this season with an 8-7 record and the 22nd Adjusted Net Rating (-1.6). They’ve played relatively fast, though and that’s made their games a bit more exciting with the 11th-fastest Pace in the league (100.7).
One player the Knicks will likely be without is Mitchell Robinson (knee -doubtful) but Coach Thibodeau has been mixing and matching with the rotations there is not much order to the Knicks’ scheme.
The one good thing through all of this experimentation is that it is abundantly clear that Immanuel Quickley, Obi Toppin, and Cam Reddish need more minutes; the only problem is that seems to be an elusive concept to Coach Thibs. These three have the best point differentials on the Knicks with +14.8, +10.3, and +6.4 respectively.
Despite this, the one thing that has been predictable this season is Thibs playing his starters directly out of halftime as well, regardless of how they are performing. As a result, the Knicks are just 6-9 ATS in the third quarter and have a Net Rating of -7.1 in the third quarter.
It is no surprise that Quickley and Toppin have averaged just 4.6 and 3.3 minutes in the third quarter over the Knicks’ last five games. They are predictable there and opponents have the opportunity to make halftime adjustments.
Warriors Have the Math Advantage
The Warriors have had a frustrating start to the season and are just 6-9 despite Stephen Curry averaging 32.8 points per game, a career-high in his age 34 season. They have an adjusted Net Rating of -0.8, 20th in the league and have struggled to find a rhythm as the season has progressed.
Coach Kerr has run into similar, yet different issues compared to Thibs as he tries to figure out which rotational pieces are effective and which are not. One piece he may not have for this game is Jonathan Kuminga (illness) who is questionable.
One key advantage the Warriors should have in this matchup is their 3 point shooting. The Warriors take 3s at the second-highest frequency in the league while the Knicks allow those looks at the third-highest frequency in the league.
The Warriors also are shooting a collective 38.2% from 3-point range, the eighth-best mark in the league compared to New York’s average 3-point defense. This issue for the Knicks is they do not take many 3s and they have the third-worst 3-point percentage as a team — it will be tough for them to keep up.
The Warriors have continued to be a strong home team and their 3rd quarter adjustments are a thing of legend. The Warriors are 5-2 ATS and 6-1 SU in the third quarter at home with a +22.3 Net Rating, third-best in the NBA.
Knicks-Warriors Pick
This is a spot they have historically excelled in, and it is because Curry, Green, Klay, and Wiggins see the bulk of the third quarter minutes while the bench is limited — their best players are on the floor coupled with Kerr’s adjustments. This is where they close the gap if they are down or blow teams out.
This game pits two teams against each other that have had difficulty figuring out their rotations in the early part of this season. However, Golden State’s edge in the third quarter at home is difficult to miss.
I’ll back the Warriors to respond well after halftime against the Knicks.
Pick: Warriors -1.5 3Q |
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