With 10 games set to tip off on Wednesday evening around the NBA, there are sure to be matchups with plenty of playoff implications on the line. One of them happens to be the New York Knicks vs. Miami Heat game.
As things stand, the Knicks sit comfortably in the five-seed, maintaining a three-game lead on the Heat, who are sitting in the seven-seed and in the thick of the play-in race.
While the Heat have typically been a regular-season juggernaut, they’ve struggled with health and inconsistent performance on both ends of the floor this season. Given the form the Knicks find themselves in, I expect these struggles to continue as the Knicks head into South Beach on Wednesday.
KNICKS VS. HEAT BETTING ODDS
| Knicks | Heat | |
| Spread | +2 | -2 |
| Moneyline | +108 | -126 |
| Over/Under | 224.5 |
KNICKS VS. HEAT BEST BETS
Knicks +2 (-112, FanDuel)
It’s been quite a while since Knicks fans have been this optimistic about their team (think back to the Carmelo Anthony days…), but they have nearly everything clicking as we approach the postseason.
Since the acquisition of Josh Hart at the trade deadline, the Knicks rank third in the entire NBA in both offensive rating (121.1) and net rating (6.2), trailing only the Sixers and Bucks in net rating, illustrating just how good they’ve been. Over that same span, they’ve scored the fifth-most points per game (119.4) and rank top-10 in the league in both made threes per game (13.4, 9th) and fewest turnovers per game (12.6, 8th). Taking care of the ball and delivering from beyond the arc are two ways to beat this Heat team and they’re two things the Knicks are doing incredibly well.
Over the same timespan referenced above, the Heat have ranked 25th in points per game (110.2) which, as bad as it is, is actually an improvement over their season-long numbers. On the year overall, they’ve scored fewer points per game than any other team in the league (109.0), relying on their defense to win them games. The problem, however, is that their defense is not nearly as elite as it has been, especially relative to how anemic their offense has been. While their defensive rating of 112.4 ranks ninth in the league, their net rating of -0.7 ranks 22nd.
Given the Heat’s struggle to consistently produce offense and the fact that the Knicks are the best team in the entire NBA against the spread (ATS) as the road team (24-12-0, +3.7 ATS +/-), I’m banking on the Knicks to keep the train rolling and extinguish the Heat in their own building.
Risk: 1.12 units on FanDuel to win 1 unit.
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