Kings vs. Warriors: A Spread, Total & Prop Bet for Game 6

Kings vs. Warriors Odds

Kings Odds	+7.5
Warriors Odds	-7.5
Over/Under	235
Time	8 p.m. ET
TV	ESPN
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

The Sacramento Kings head back to to San Francisco to take on the Golden State Warriors in what could be their final game of the season. Game 5 saw the road team win for the first time this series in a game that may have sealed the Kings fate considering the Warriors dominance at home.

However, we play these games out for a reason and if there’s a Western Conference team that could pull off a road upset against the reigning champs, it’s the Kings. They were the best road team in the West this season with a 25-18 record straight up (28-15 against the spread) and they were 14-8 ATS as road underdogs, but just 9-11 straight up.

Let’s breakdown the odds and I’ll give out some picks for Game 6 of the Kings vs. Warriors.

The Kings looked good early in Game 5, hitting 8-of-12 shots from 3-point range on 14-of-27 from the field. Rookie sharpshooter Keegan Murray looked especially poised to explode for a monster game. He started the game with 10 points on 4-of-5 shooting and 2-of-2 from deep in 9.5 first-quarter minutes as Sacramento looked ready to keep the series home win streak alive.

After the first quarter, things went downhill for the Kings. They proceeded to shoot a brutal 2-of-22 from beyond the arc after the first quarter and Murray didn’t attempt a single shot the rest of the game despite playing 35 minutes — a bizarre choice by head coach Mike Brown.

The decision was especially bizarre considering they needed the offense. De’Aaron Fox played the game with a fractured finger on his shooting hand and didn’t look himself. He shot just 9-of-25 from the field and 3-of-10 from deep to go with an uncharacteristic six turnovers. It seems unlikely that he’ll heal up in any meaningful way before Friday’s game.

The Kings’ troubles didn’t start until the second quarter, however. And hot starts have been a recent theme for the Kings –especially away from the Golden 1 Center. In their last 10 road games going back to the regular season, the Kings are 7-3 ATS in the first quarter.

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There were a lot of encouraging signs from the Warriors in Game 5 as they were able to pull off an elusive road win.

The Warriors scored just 14 points off turnovers in Games 1 and 2 combined, but they’ve started to win the turnover battle lately — something they’ve struggled with even at their championship peak. During the regular season, the Warriors ranked 28th in home Turnover Percentage (15.4%), according to Cleaning the Glass. In their two home games this series, they’ve lowered that number to 10.9%.

On the road in Game 5, they coughed up the ball an unimpressive 15 times, but managed to score 19 points off of 19 Sacramento turnovers. The Warriors also scored 18 second-chance points off 11 offensive rebounds with Kevon Looney acting as the primary culprit on the glass.

Looney, who’s been crashing the offensive boards in bunches this playoffs (4.2 per game), had seven of his 22 rebounds in the form of extra possessions. He coupled that with four assists to conclude his massive statistical output. He’s averaging 19.4 rebounds and assists per game this series and 24.5 in the two games at Chase Center.

Kings-Warriors Pick

Based on what I saw from the Kings in Game 5, I expect the Warriors to move on to Round 2. The Warriors have consistently won at home despite their significant troubles on the road and I don’t see that changing here with a chance to close out the series.

But in an elimination game that could mean the end of their season, the Kings have value in the first quarter as underdogs down to +1.5. The Kings covered the first quarter in three of the five games this series, with two of the three covers coming after a Warriors win. Expect them to stay hot early especially after their Game 5 loss.

Let’s put some money on the under as well. Warriors unders have been quite profitable at home and with an added wrinkle of it being a Game 6 I like the under even more. According to BetLabs, since the 2004-2005 season, unders in Games 6 and 7 are 121-87 (58.2%) with a 13.7% ROI. I’ll play the under down to 233.5.

Finally, I’ll take Looney’s rebounds and assists prop at over 16.5 and would play that to 17.5 for a half unit. He’s cleared it three of the four times he played more than 25 minutes this series and considering how dominant he was last game, I expect Warriors head coach Steve Kerr to let the big man play at least 30 once again.

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