Series prices are a fantastic way to extract some value out of the NBA Playoffs — especially during the first round, and especially on underdogs or mispriced favorites.
There was only one true underdog that won on Saturday, when the NBA Playoffs began in earnest with four Game 1 contests, but that win substantially changed the series’ odds.
The Timberwolves dominated almost wire-to-wire in their win over the Grizzlies in Memphis, effectively taking away home court advantage for the time being.
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Minnesota had been +260 underdogs at FanDuel to advance to the conference semifinals prior to the first round. Now, they’re still underdogs, but are priced at +105 by the sportsbook.
That’s an increase of implied probability of over 21%. The Timberwolves had a roughly 28% implied probability to win the series on Friday — now, that’s surged to 49%.
Another road team won on Saturday, but that team had been the favorite to win the series on account of injuries. The Jazz took care of business in Dallas against a Mavericks team that was dearly missing Luka Doncic.
Doncic could return for Game 2. But in the meantime, the Mavericks saw their series odds drop from their opening price of -105 to its current mark of of around +430.
A note here to say that those series odds did change from its opening price once it became clear Doncic would miss some time. The price immediately before tipoff was at around +190.
The Action Network’s premier NBA writer Matt Moore recommended a play on the Mavericks’ series price after Game 1 and considered many of the aforementioned factors at play.
Meanwhile, two favorites on Saturday saw their wins elongate their series prices extensively.
The 76ers had been roughly -185 favorites to advance against the Raptors. Now, they’re around -405 across sportsbooks.
And the Warriors’ dominant victory over the Nuggets saw their series odds shift from -270 to a ridiculous -550.