Grizzlies vs. Mavericks: Dallas Has Value If Irving Plays

Grizzlies vs. Mavericks Odds

Grizzlies Odds	-2.5
Mavericks Odds	+2.5
Over/Under	224.5
Time	7:30 p.m. ET
TV	ESPN
Odds via PointsBet. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

The Memphis Grizzlies have now won two straight over quality opponents thanks to a late push against the Dallas Mavericks on Saturday night. Now, the Grizzlies get the Mavericks again — this time on the road.

With two key members of the Mavs popping up on the injury report, this could be a precarious spot for the home team. Let’s get into how to bet this one in our Grizzlies vs. Mavericks preview and predictions.

It seems the Grizzlies are finally adjusting to life without Ja Morant. After a big win over the Warriors last week, they backed that up with a come-from-behind victory in Memphis Saturday, which was fueled by a huge fourth quarter.

While the Mavericks were a bit shorthanded (we’ll get to that in a second), it was still a commanding performance by a Memphis team that loves to play physical basketball. The Grizz picked up 54 points in the paint to the Mavericks’ 38 and out-rebounded their division opponent as well.

The Grizzlies continue to struggle in the shooting department, hitting an abysmal 33.9% from deep to rank 28th in the NBA over the last 10 games, and over that stretch they haven’t even been able to convert on looks close to the basket with just 56.9% of their looks going down inside of 10 feet. That’s nothing new when you compare it to the rest of the season, but it does illustrate that this team needs help from a bad defense to really make its mark on offense, and the Mavericks proved to be just that on Saturday.

There’s nothing new here for the Grizzlies on the injury report, but in case you needed a refresher: Morant, Steven Adams and Brandon Clarke all remain out here for Memphis.

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The Mavericks will be without Luka Doncic for a second game as their superstar nurses a thigh injury, and they may be missing Kyrie Irving once again as he nurses a sore foot.

While we don’t have a large sample to go off of, this is obviously crushing news. Dallas is 3-8 straight up without Doncic this season and losing by 6.6 points per 100 possessions. The loss of Irving could prove to be even more catastrophic considering the Mavericks’ 123.9 Offensive Rating in 11 games with their deadline acquisition.

With that said, Saturday’s loss to Memphis marked Dallas’ first in its last four games without Doncic on the floor. It has shot 45.9% or better in those four contests to look much more convincing on offense, though that had a lot to do with Irving’s arrival.

Dallas was forced to go with Jaden Hardy for 37 minutes without the pair of stars, and while he did manage to score 22 points he struggled big-time defensively. Irving surprisingly brings a presence on the defensive end these days and would be a massive improvement on both ends of the floor over the rookie.

Irving is officially listed as questionable for this tilt, and it’s anyone’s guess whether or not he will suit up. Dallas is indeed fighting for its playoff life, sitting in eighth place just a game back of Golden State in sixth.

Grizzlies-Mavericks Pick

Unfortunately, this is all going to depend on whether or not Irving plays. With him, I see no reason why Memphis should be favored here. It is 11-21-1 against the spread on the road and 2-9 ATS as road underdogs. Some books have the Grizzlies as slim favorites here while others have them as the underdogs.

Regardless, this is a much worse team away from home and a team that has little going for it on the offensive side of the ball without Morant there to help. They benefited from a shorthanded Dallas team on Saturday, and even then it was a massive struggle to ultimately come away the victors in the end.

At the time of this writing, I side with Dallas, but the best move here is to wait for the Irving news. If he’s going to play, I’d lay up to four with the Mavs here, but I think this team is deep enough to win without him.

Pick: Mavericks +2.5