Grizzlies vs. 76ers: Fade Memphis on the Road Without Adams

Grizzlies vs. 76ers Odds

Grizzlies Odds	+3.5
76ers Odds	-3.5
Over/Under	229.5
Time	7:30 p.m. ET
TV	TNT
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

The “second half” of the season tips off in a massive way with two of the five best teams in the NBA meeting on Thursday evening in Philadelphia. While the edge in form certainly has to go to the 76ers, the Grizzlies can hang their proverbial hat on a strong finish heading into the break.

Let’s dive into this enticing Grizzlies vs. 76ers matchup along with a betting pick and prediction.

It’s hard to call the first half of the NBA season anything but a success for the Grizzlies, considering they currently stand as the No. 2 team in the Western Conference. With that being said, the Grizzlies certainly can’t be happy with how their first half ended.

Sure, this team has won three of its last four, but it also endured a painful stretch just prior to that short period of success with eight losses in nine games. All in all, Memphis is 4-10 against the spread in its last 14 games, dating back to January 20.

It certainly hasn’t helped matters that Steven Adams has missed 11 straight games and will sit out a 12th on Thursday in Philly. During that time, the Grizzlies have plummeted in rebounding, ranking third-worst in the league with a Rebounding Rate of just 46.8%. For the season they’ve grabbed 51.5% of available rebounds, good for fifth in the association.

While the Grizzlies may be up against it on the glass, the task gets even tougher when you consider they enter this one winless in eight games as road underdogs, and have gone just 1-7 against the spread in those games. As the road team in general,  Memphis is 9-18-1 ATS.

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The Sixers couldn’t be in a different spot than the Grizzlies, standing 20-10-1 ATS at home and 16-10-1 ATS as the home favorite. On top of that, they’ve gone 20-7 straight up as the home favorites this year.

Philadelphia also entered the break on a four-game winning streak and has lost just three of its last 16 games dating back to January 14. Oh, and Philly is now injury-free.

With that said, it was the Grizzlies who took the first game of this season series in Memphis back on December 2. The Sixers fought back valiantly, out-scoring the Grizzlies 33-25 in the fourth quarter, but they were ultimately overmatched inside by the physicality of Memphis’ frontcourt. Adams had 16 rebounds and six assists, the Grizzlies out-rebounded the Sixers 57-42, and Memphis out-scored Philly in the paint, 60-46. The Sixers shot 42.4% from 3 and still fell flat offensively.

Consequently, there’s a reasonable expectation that without Adams this time around, and with Tyrese Maxey, who was absent for that first meeting, the 76ers should be better off this time around. They’ve also seen a marginal increase in their rebounding production, collecting 49.6% of available rebounds in the last 10 games versus 48.8% for the entire season.

Grizzlies-76ers Pick

Here we have one team which has had a disastrous season away from home, and one which has been absolutely dominant on its own floor going on several years now. While the Grizzlies’ cold spell surely won’t continue, I still don’t rate this team as highly without Adams in the fold.

It’s clear some of their edge on defense is gone, and their rebounding numbers have cratered. While the 76ers aren’t a particularly strong team on the glass, they showed some significant improvements heading into the All-Star break and should welcome what has turned into a soft matchup here.

I’d also like to point out that Jaren Jackson Jr. has naturally been the recipient of more Usage without Adams on the floor this season, and newly-acquired Jalen McDaniels has been solid as the primary defender inside of six feet this year, with a 61.5% defended field goal percentage against him. Paul Reed has been even better at just over 60%. While the Sixers have struggled to defend inside, they do have some options here should Jackson begin to hurt them with his interior scoring.

I’ll lay the points here with the home behemoth up to -4.5.