Today is the perfect Friday night if you’re a basketball junkie.
Along with wall-to-wall games in the Las Vegas Summer League, tonight’s WNBA slate features four games all tipping between 7 p.m. and 8 p.m. ET. I have my eye on three of those four games for player props: Fever vs. Mystics, Mercury vs. Lynx and Sky vs. Dream.
Here’s how I’m betting WNBA player props today.
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WNBA Player Props & Picks
Fever vs.
Mystics
Ariel Atkins, Over 1.5 3-Pointers (-158)
| Spread | Mystics -3.5 |
| Time | TV | 7 p.m. ET | ION |
| Best Line | FanDuel |
I know it’s juiced to damn near -160, but so what? This should be a gimme … should be.
Atkins has hit two-plus 3-pointers in four of her past five contests, and while she’s shooting 48% during that stretch, she’s shot 33% or lower in three of those games. That’s fine – she’s getting them up.
Two 3-pointers on volume vs. two 3s on high efficiency doesn’t matter – we just want to make money. She’s put up six or more 3s during this stretch, and is averaging about six 3-point attempts per game this season.
We’ll take that, and hopefully, this winner.
Pick: Ariel Atkins, Over 1.5 3-Pointers |
Mercury vs.
Lynx
Lindsay Allen, Over 5.5 Assists (-113)
| Spread | Lynx -5.5 |
| Time | TV | 8 p.m. ET | ION |
| Best Line | FanDuel |
Is this a trap, or is it a trend? Lindsay Allen has hit this over in six consecutive contests, including all four recent starts. However, in the first 10 games of the season, she never even hit five assists.
We’ll bet that this is a trend that continues, and we’re getting this at a great number, as of this writing, so why not? I may buy this up to 6.5 if I’m getting plus odds, but even if I do, that’ll arrive with some hesitation.
Still, Allen should come through for us here tonight, so long as Napheesa Collier continues her hot streak (three 30-point games in last four and averaging 25.1 points over last 12), along with the requisite supplemental shotmaking from Kayla McBride and or Diamond Miller, whose scoring over I’d look at (14.5 points) in response to a one-point showing last game.
Pick: Lindsay Allen, Over 5.5 Assists |
Sky vs.
Dream
Courtney Williams, Over 10.5 Points (-113)
| Spread | Sky -1.5 |
| Time | TV | 8 p.m. ET | ION |
| Best Line | FanDuel |
This is a similar bet to Allen, with the idea that at least one is a trend vs. a trap, and with Atkins presumably hitting, we’ll end the night a net positive.
The case for Williams over 10.5 points is simple: She’s gotten 11-plus in four-straight, exploded for a season-high 28 points on July 2, the Sky’s first game under interim head coach Emre Vatansever, and we’ll bet that the seemingly perimeter focused attack will benefit the backcourt here.
Williams’ 28-point game is probably an anomaly, sure, but we only need 11 – and that’s been happening. Williams has gotten 11, 21, 12 and 28 in her last four on an abnormal 63 percent efficiency. I’m banking less on that to continue and more that Williams – averaging 12.3 field goal attempts per game during this stretch with 15 and 17 in two of her last three – accumulates the necessary volume if needed.
Either that or the efficiency could just persist a fifth-straight game. We’ll take 11 points however we get em.
Pick: Courtney Williams, Over 10.5 Points |