Happy Friday, bettors.
We went one-for-two on Commissioner Cup Tuesday, but both were at plus odds, so I guess we’re on the right track.
Tonight, I’m eyeing a trio of point-props for the five-game slate.
Let’s not waste any time and get into the picks so y’all can enjoy the weekend.
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WNBA Player Props Today
Mystics vs.
Fever
Erica Wheeler, Over 9.5 points (-136)
| Spread | Mystics -4.5 |
| Time | TV | 7 p.m. ET | ION |
| Best Line | FanDuel |
This feels like it should hit, especially given the -136 number, so we’re starting light.
Wheeler has soared way over the allotted 9.5 points many times in recent outings. The Indiana Fever guard has accumulated 10 points or more in 10 of her last 12 contests, and this prop may elevate to 10.5 by tip, at which I’d still play it over.
Wheeler will have to deal with the Washington Mystics’ defense, generally in the top half of the league this season, but has posted her most consistent scoring numbers over this current one-month stretch, shooting about 44 percent since July 12, after barely residing over 40 percent for the first two months of the season.
The Rutgers alum does have a recent zero on her scoring tally, but otherwise lives around 10 or more points per game, and is lately putting forth the volume to accommodate what this prop would require more often than not, shooting nine or more times from the field in all but three games during this 12-game run.
Liberty vs.
Mercury
Breanna Stewart, Over 21.5 points (-113)
| Spread | Liberty -12 |
| Time | TV | 10 p.m. ET | ION |
| Best Line | FanDuel |
Stewie’s prop, at even money, is a tricky one, but I think it’s worthwhile against the Phoenix Mercury, who she’s torched this season. The two-time WNBA Champion has put up 43-12-6 and 28-14-7 against the Mercury this season, the former on just 20 shots, and the latter on 13.
Because of her efficiency and free throw rate, she typically doesn’t need immense volume to go off, which makes this play tantalizing tonight.
As for her recent efforts, we’re looking at over 21.5 points in just two of her last six, but she did reach this in four straight prior. It’s a 50-50 play, but one that could hit tonight, especially considering that her 3-for-15 shooting performance last time out shouldn’t be duplicated. After shooting performances of 30 percent or fewer this season, Stewart has shot 50 percent or better in the following contest all but once (four of five times).
Additionally, after those five contests, she’s responded with 22 points or more all five times.
Lynx vs.
Storm
Kayla McBride, Over 11.5 points (-120)
| Spread | Lynx -1.5 |
| Time | TV | 10 p.m. ET | ION |
| Best Line | FanDuel |
I’m a sucker for a good Kayla McBride prop because she’s one of my favorite wings in the league, sure, but her scoring has steadied after much more variance early on in her career.
The three-time All-Star had scored over 11.5 points in six straight games before landing at just 10 last time out. McBride hasn’t fallen under eight shot attempts since July 20, which was a slightly more frequent occurrence the first two months of the season.
Given the lack of resistance from the Seattle Storm defense on a game-to-game basis, I’ll take my chances at McBride flying off screens and shooting her way to 12 points, with at least a pair of threes, which she’s gotten in each of her last six — including two games of four triples or more.
Earlier this season, McBride got to 18 and 19 points, respectively, against the Storm in back-to-back contests. So, sure, there’s some Trap or Trend elements here, but I’m rolling with McBride to pull through for us.