The Nuggets continue their East Coast road trip tonight and will battle another contender in the Boston Celtics. Their game in Philadelphia on Tuesday had 247 points scored and tonight should be another high scoring game. I’ll be backing Kristaps Porzingis in that one.
Miami had their three-game winning streak end with a thud in a blowout loss in Toronto on Wednesday. They return home to battle the Hawks tonight. Tyler Herro will look to go off against the Hawks once again. However, first we will begin in Charlotte where LaMelo Ball and the Hornets will be hosting the Spurs.
Let’s dive into my NBA player props for Friday, January 19.
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NBA Player Props | Expert Picks for Friday, Jan. 19
LaMelo Ball Over 26.5 Points (+100)
7 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass
Since LaMelo Ball returned from injury last Friday against the Spurs, he has scored 27 points in two of his last three games. That is despite shooting just under 39% from the field and 29.4 from 3-point range, well below his season marks of 44% and 37%, respectively. Overall, Ball has hit this line in eight of his last 10 games, averaging 28.6 points per game. That includes the game that he turned his ankle and only played 15 minutes.
Tonight, he gets the Spurs again, this time on his floor. He has scored 28 points in each of his past two games against the Spurs. Tonight, he will not have to worry about Victor Wembanyama, who is resting on the first end of the back-to-back for the Spurs. Without his rim protection, Ball will not have to worry about much resistance on his drives.
However, Ball is also a volume 3-point shooter and he has a great matchup tonight. San Antonio is 29th in 3-pointers allowed per game and 28th in 3-point defense by opponent FG percentage. Ball is attempting 9.4 3s per game this season and 11.3 over his past three games. With some positive shooting regression as he shakes off the rust, he could knock down five or more here.
If he does knock down five, he will likely score 30 points tonight, which he has done seven times this season. You can take Ball to score 30 points at +165 at ESPN and 35 at +430 at FanDuel.
Pick: LaMelo Ball Over 26.5 Points (+100)
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Kristaps Porzingis Over 16.5 Points (-140, DraftKings)
7:30 p.m. ET | ESPN
In Tuesday’s game, we backed Joel Embiid’s points, partially because of motivation but also because of the matchup. Embiid’s line was double of Kristaps Porzingis’ line tonight. However, Porzingis hasn’t had much issue getting to 17 points this season.
The Celtics big man is averaging 19.1 points per game, so an average game would work here. He has scored 17 points in 20-of-30 games (67%) this season. He has done even better in Boston, hitting this line in nine of his last 10 games at home, averaging 20.9 points per game.
Tonight, he gets a Nuggets team that is allowing the ninth-most points per game to centers. Porzingis has also had personal success against Nikola Jokic. In his last four games against Jokic, he has scored 25+ points in three of them and 16 in the other.
Those games came when he was more featured on Washington. However, he has scored 25 points in three of his past 10 games. You can back him to score 25 at +440 on FanDuel tonight.
Pick: Kristaps Porzingis Over 16.5 Points (-140)
Tyler Herro Over 22.5 Points (-135, DraftKings)
8 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass
Tyler Herro is averaging 22.4 points per game this season, but he has been a little better at home. In Miami, he is averaging 23.5 points per game. He has hit this line in five of 10 home games this season. However, in three additional home games, he scored 22, 22, and 21 points. So he is a bucket away from an 80% hit rate.
Herro should score 20 points tonight and he will likely be in the neighborhood of this line as well, particularly in this matchup. The Hawks are allowing the most points per game to shooting guards. They are also 24th in 3-pointers allowed per game and 25th in 3-point percentage defense. Herro has made four 3s or more in five of his past eight games.
Additionally, he has already taken advantage of this matchup with the Hawks. He scored 26 and 30 points in his last two games against the Hawks. We backed him for the last matchup, which was also at home. In that game, he knocked down seven 3s and nearly hit this line with just his long range marksmanship.
Tonight’s game will have Jimmy Butler back in the lineup. That may take a couple of shots away from Herro, but he will also have less attention on him. Against Brooklyn on Monday, Butler had 31 and Herro had 29 points. I like him to score at least 23 points tonight. You can also take him for 30 at +340 on FanDuel.
Pick: Tyler Herro Over 22.5 Points (-135)