PropBetGuy will break down some of his favorite NBA plays of the day, and will track all his bets in The Action Network app.
NBA Player Prop & Pick
Bam Adebayo, 20+ PTS | Over 8+ REB
| Odds | Over 20+ PTS & 8+ REB Parlay (-120) |
| Time | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| Books Available | DraftKings |
I’m getting a bit creative in how I’m betting on him tonight, but one thing is for certain: I want to ride the wave with Bam Adebayo.
The Heat center is on a tear of late, averaging 22.4 points and 10.9 rebounds since the beginning of December. He’s cleared this combined line in 14 of his last 19 games (including eight of his past nine).
It’s evident that the Heat are looking to feed their big man. Since Dec. 1, Adebayo ranks third in the NBA in combined elbow and paint touches with 17.8 per game, trailing only Nikola Jokic and Domantas Sabonis. And with 17 rebound chances per game in the same time frame, Adebayo has consistently put himself in position to clean the glass.
While the Mavericks have solid counting stats against opposing centers, they do struggle with skilled big men. Christian Wood and Maxi Kleber are both out with injuries, which leaves the underwhelming duo of Dwight Powell and JaVale McGee to man the middle.
Adebayo thrived in this matchup last season, registering lines of 22/33 and 21/12. He should have no issue attacking the rim on offense. And defensively, he’ll be roaming the paint to protect against Luka Doncic’s drives, which should keep him in prime rebounding position.
Jimmy Butler likely gets the matchup against Dorian Finney-Smith, and Tyler Herro against Reggie Bullock and Spencer Dinwiddie. I’ll take Adebayo’s soft draw against the Mavericks frontcourt over those two.
Tonight, I have Adebayo projected at 24 points and 11 rebounds. While I would play the traditional line of over 32.5 P+R, the modified SGP of 20 points and 8 rebounds is my favorite play of the slate.
Pick: Bam Adebayo Over 20+ PTS & 8+ REB Parlay (-120)
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