Tonight’s Game 3 results will set the tone for the remainder of the NBA Finals. The Celtics and Warriors have produced both dominant moments and shown concerning weaknesses over the first two games of this series. This is the 40th time the NBA Finals have been split 1-1 after two games, In the last 39 of those series, the winner of Game 3 has won the NBA title over 82 percent (32-7) of the time.
Boston is 56-45-3 (56.6%) this year against the spread, ranking as the fifth-best NBA team this season. However, they have been suprisingly mediocre at home, covering the number just 45.8% (22-26-2) at TD Garden. Golden State has also had their struggles ATS on the road, going just 1-3 in their last four playoff games away from Chase Center.
After a Warriors blowout in Game 2, we head to Boston for a critical Game 3 matchup. Can Golden State earn back home-court advantage, or will the Celtics take a historically relevant 2-1 series lead?
Here are my picks for tonight’s matchup.
For more expert NBA analysis and picks from 4for4, sign up for our betting subscription!
Celtics vs. Warriors Betting Odds
| Celtics | Warriors | |
| Spread | -3.5 | +3.5 |
| Moneyline | -152 | +135 |
| Over/Under | 212.5 |
*Lines accurate at the time of publication.
Celtics vs. Warriors Wednesday Night Picks
Draymond Green (GS) Under 21.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-115, DraftKings)
Draymond Green had a strong Game 2, but still did not beat this number against Boston. He played 35 minutes, including some in the fourth quarter against the Celtics backups, but still only tallied nine points, five rebounds, and seven assists.
Boston’s superior internal defense limits Golden State’s shots at the rim, which hurts Green’s production. Against the height-challenged Mavericks, Green was able to average 10.6 PPG, over three full points above his regular-season average. In 20 regular season road games, Green has only average 20.7 PRA, and has been under this number in four of his seven road playoff games this year.
Green is shooting just 41.7 percent from the field and 35.7 percent from the free-throw line in this series. I’m betting on Green going under this prop tonight, in a challenging road environment at TD Garden.
Risk: 1.15 units on DraftKings to win 1 unit. (Bet up to -125)
Download the Betsperts App to get even more expert NBA picks, track your bets, and the latest game stats & information on each matchup.
Celtics vs. Warriors Under 212.5 Points (-110, Bet365)
This game is such a pivotal matchup, I’m betting this number under the 212.5 total.
The Celtics rank among the seven slowest paced teams this season per John Hollinger. This has translated to the 10th fewest points per game at home. The Celtics have gone under in four of their last six playoff games, and have split one under and one over in the two NBA Finals games. However, both games have played at a much slower pace, and Game 1 only went over the total because of a scorching hot fourth quarter from Boston. The Celtics posted 40 points in the final quarter of the first game, barely pushing the game total over.
The Warriors will again be limited on their bench, with Andre Iguodala likely out again due to knee inflammation. If Golden State sees foul trouble, their uptempo offense will be severely limited. I’m projecting Boston to slow down the pace, and keep this game in a more comfortable half-court battle.
The bigger the game, the slower the pace. I’m going under on a total that is seeing the overwhelming amount of money at the sportsbooks.
Risk: 1.1 units on Bet365 to win 1 unit. (Bet up to -120)
Don’t forget to download the Betsperts App, sign up for a 4for4 betting subscription, and get the latest betting picks.
This article is intended for entertainment purposes and adult users only. Call 1-800-GAMBLER if you have a gambling problem.