After back-to-back victories for the Celtics, the Eastern Conference Finals are going into Game 6 tonight in South Beach.
The Heat could be on the verge of the wrong side of history if they don’t find a way to win this game after being up 3-0 in the series. The Celtics are three-point road favorites with a very low 210-point total.
This article features two player rebound props with Grant Williams and Bam Adebayo pulled from our Action Labs Prop Model.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Grant Williams, Over 3.5 Rebounds (-135)
| Spread | Celtics -3 |
| Time | TV | 8:30 p.m. ET | TNT |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
This series has been a roller coaster ride for Grant Williams.
He didn’t play at all in Game 1, and then many put the blame on him in Game 2 for poking the bear and getting into an altercation with Jimmy Butler.
However, since entering the rotation, Williams is averaging 10.3 points and 3.8 rebounds over his last four games while shooting 58.3% from the field and 53.3% from beyond the arc. His 27.8 minutes per game have been important off the bench.
With their backs against the wall again, expect Williams to continue getting close to 30 minutes tonight. With a known injury to Malcolm Brogdon, who only played eight minutes in Game 5, it wouldn’t be surprising if Williams surpassed the 30-minute mark for the first time all series.
Getting that much playing time will lead to several opportunities to reach the over on hisrebound prop. Six of his 15 rebounds during this series have been offensive rebounds.
In the last four games, Williams is third on the team behind Jayson Tatum and Al Horford in rebound chances with 7.8 per game.
Our Prop Model has Williams projected for 4.6 rebounds, which is more than one full rebound higher than his prop line. He has reached the over in each of his last two games and will have a great chance to make it three in a row.
I would consider taking the juice on over 4.5 rebounds if it came down to it at all sportsbooks.
Bam Adebayo, Over 8.5 Rebounds (-130)
| Best Line | DraftKings |
After losing back-to-back games, there may be added pressure on the Heat in Game 6 if they’re expecting to finally close out the Celtics on their home court. That will bring out the best in the Heat’s two stars, Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo.
These two are on a great run and are one victory away from another NBA Finals appearance. Despite being three-point underdogs, they’re 6-1 at home during the playoffs with an average margin of victory of 9.6 points per game.
Adebayo had one massive rebounding performance in Game 2, pulling down 17 rebounds, but he hasn’t reached more than nine rebounds in this matchup since.
However, during the postseason, Adebayo is averaging a team-high 14.6 rebound chances and 8.9 rebounds per game. In order for the Heat to win Game 6 tonight, Adebayo will need to dominate the paint and the glass. After three straight blowouts, Adebayo will be well-rested to reach this over.
Our Prop Model has Adebayo projected for a double-double, including 10.6 rebounds, which is well over his 8.5-rebound prop line. I would consider climbing the ladder with this prop, especially betting over 9.5 rebounds.
To take it a step further, look at his prop to record a double-double at +140 at DraftKings. Adebayo is averaging 16.2 points per game and has reached double figures in scoring for each game. I love this bounce-back spot for Adebayo.