Top Plays: 13 of 57 (22.8%, +39.9u)
*considering 1u risk for each bet* / **value plays become top plays if Top Play is announced out**
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LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS @ DENVER NUGGETS – NBA on TNT – 10:00 EST
This will be the 4th matchup of the year between the teams, with the Nuggets having scored 1st Basket in 2 of the previous 3 (Nikola Jokic 2x). Jokic is 3-0 in tips against Ivica Zubac this year and Jokic has won the tip in 12 of his last 14 games since the All-Star Break.
I like the Nuggets to get a look here at home.
In the previous 3 games against the Clippers, Jokic scored 1st team FG in all 3. There’s all the reason to play him there if you want to. I would try and parlay it with Denver ML to see if I can get some increased value. If you can get that around +500, I think that’s good enough value to take.
If you want reasons on why not to play Jokic and why he’s not a top play for me today, keep reading…
In the last 27 games the Clippers have played, an opposing teams Center has cashed 1st Basket only ONCE (3.7%). That’s enough reason for me to stay off Jokic today.
In the last 6 games the Clippers have been scored on 1st, it’s been a Point Guard or Power Forward in all 6. I think there’s some great value here on Jeff Green +1100 and Monte Morris +1200.
Although I do like the high-value guys, it’s hard to overlook the usage of Jokic & Barton early as of late. They have scored Denver’s 1st team FG in 10 of last 12 (Barton 3x, Jokic 7x). Because of his high usage, I’m going to swap out Monte Morris and plug in Will Barton as my top play at Guard.
Aaron Gordon hasn’t cashed a 1st Basket in the last 45 games for the Nuggets, so I see no reason to play him either today.
TOP PLAYS: Will Barton +650, Jeff Green +1100
VALUE PLAYS: Nikola Jokic & Den ML +470, Monte Morris +1200
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