Follow me on Twitter for more information and data @FirstBasketMan.
Top Plays: 13 of 61 (21.3%, +35.9u)
*considering 1u risk for Top Plays* / **value plays become top plays if Top Play is announced out**
Check out all of today’s First Basket Player Prop Bets >>
CHICAGO BULLS @ NEW ORLEANS PELICANS – 8:00 EST
This will be the 2nd matchup of the year between the Bulls and Pelicans, with the Bulls having scored 1st Basket earlier in the season (Lonzo Ball). Nikola Vucevic (35% Tip Win) will face Jonas Valanciunas (53% Tip Win) and he is 1-0 on the year. In the previous game, the Bulls scored on the 1st possession.
Despite winning 53% of his tips, Valanciunas and the Pelicans only score 1st in 39% of his games. Conversely, Vucevic only wins 35% of his tips but the Bulls score 1st in 54% of his games. The crazy thing is, Vucevic’s Tip Win% gets even worse on the road (28%), but the Bulls 1st Basket % increases (59%).
The Pelicans have been scored on 1st in 3 straight home games. In the last 7 games, the Pelicans have been scored on 1st, it’s been a SG or C in 6 of them.
The Bulls have scored 1st in 7 of last 8 road games despite Vuc only winning the tip in 4 of them. In the last 12 games for the Bulls, Javonte Green or Nikola Vucevic have scored 1st team basket in 10 of them (cashing 1st Basket in 6 of them). Although Javonte Green plays PF for the Bulls, he is a natural SG, so I like this to still lineup with the trend of SG’s scoring against the Pels.
The only other player I’d consider for the Bulls is Lavine, although he’s only cashed 1st Basket 1 time in 2022. Alex Caruso also hasn’t cashed 1st Basket all year for the Bulls. So I’ll stay away from them.
Javonte Green has scored 1st (including last night) in 3 of the Bulls’ last 12 (25%) and his value at +1500 is an implied probability of 6.3%. Too much value here tonight to pass up on playing him.
TOP PICKS: Nikola Vucevic +500, Javonte Green +1500
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
NBA Player Prop Bets
- CJ McCollum Prop Bet Odds
- Aaron Gordon Prop Bet Odds
- Deandre Ayton Prop Bet Odds
- Buddy Hield Prop Bet Odds
- Raul Neto Prop Bet Odds
Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our Sports Betting Strategy and Advice page is for you. You can get started with our 101 section — including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners — or head to more advanced strategy — like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread — to learn more.