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Top Plays: 15 of 65 (23.1%, +43.0u)
*considering 1u risk for Top Plays* / **value plays become top plays if Top Play is announced out**
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CHICAGO BULLS @ CLEVELAND CAVALIERS – 8:00 EST
This will be the 4th matchup of the year between the Bulls and Cavs, with the Cavs having scored 1st basket in 2 of the previous 3 (Markkanen, Mobley). This will be the 2nd tip matchup of the year between Nikola Vucevic and Evan Mobley, with Mobley having won the previous tip, but Javonte Green stole it so the Bulls got the 1st possession. In that game, the Bulls turned the ball over on the 1st possession. In the next possession, Darius Garland got the ball in the left corner, ran a pick & roll with Evan Mobley, dropped a bounce pass to him at the elbow and after Mobley fumbled the ball a bit, he hit a fadeaway jumper from the free-throw line.
Coming into this game, Vucevic has only won 2 of his L5 tips while Mobley has won 3 of his L5. I like Mobley to win the tip again here tonight, but there’s always the possibility that Javonte Green steals it.
Expecting Cavs to get 1st possession, it’s hard to look anywhere else besides Evan Mobley. He’s been on a tear lately. Mobley has scored 1st team basket for CLE in 7 of their L8 games. In the L11 games that Mobley has jumped for the Cavs, he’s scored 1st team basket in NINE (81%).
In 3 of the L4 games that the Bulls have been scored on 1st, it was a Center. I think it’s pretty clear that Mobley will get a chance, but keep reading because I think there are a couple more plays worth making.
Now I’ll be honest, Vucevic is terrible at tips. He’s won 36% of his tips this year and he only wins 30% of tips on the road. BUT (and a big but here), Vucevic and the Bulls cash 1st FG in 61% of road games when he jumps for them. That is an insane split to be honest.
So we have to get some action on Vucevic at +500 and here’s why.
The tip I think Mobley wins, but who gains possession is still TBD. There’s a strong chance the Bulls get the 1st possession unexpectedly. If Bulls get a chance at 1st Basket, Vucevic has scored 1st team FG for the Bulls in 2 of the previous 3 matchups against the Cavs.
In the L7 games that the Cavs were scored on 1st when Mobley was jumping, it was a Center in 5 of them (71%).
I think there are multiple ways we can profit here playing these 2 guys.
The Bulls’ worst position to defend against is the Center, allowing 36% of 1st team FGs to that position. Going to get creative with Top Plays and hope we can cash from different angles.
TOP PLAYS:
Evan Mobley +500
Nikola Vucevic +500
Evan Mobley – 1st FG for the Cavaliers +225
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