The New York Liberty entered the postseason as the No. 1 overall seed and the betting favorite to win the championship. Through one round of play, they look ready to do exactly that, though if they are to even make it to the final series, they will have to get past the Las Vegas Aces, who defeated the Liberty in last year’s finals to win their second-consecutive title.
Both the Liberty and Aces swept their first-round matchups, with New York knocking off Atlanta and Vegas getting past Seattle.
Their respective series victories set up an intriguing matchup between the teams who entered the postseason as the betting favorites, and one could argue it’s a shame whoever comes out on top will be rewarded with another round, and not a shiny trophy.
That’s how it sometimes goes, though, and for the rest of us, that means we’ll get to watch what may very well be looked back on as the series that decided the 2024 champion, as some of the league’s brightest stars battle it out in a best-of-five series.
Previous Matchups
June 15 @ Las Vegas: Liberty 90, Aces 82
Jonquel Jones scores 34 for Liberty while Sabrina Ionescu adds 15. Breanna Stewart chipped in 14 points and 12 rebounds. Kelsey Plum led the Aces with 22 points and A’ja Wilson added 21, while Kiah Stokes collected 12 rebounds. Liberty made 12-of-28 3-point attempts while the Aces were 11-of-34 from deep.
Aug. 17 @ Las Vegas: Liberty 79, Aces 67
Vegas scored 28 in the first quarter but just 39 over the final three. Wilson led all scorers with 24 points but was joined by just two others in double figures. Liberty got 23 from Ionescu and 18 from Stewart while the team outrebounded Aces 46-30, including a 13-2 edge in offensive boards. Jones collected 17 rebounds, including seven offensive.
Sept. 8 @ New York: Liberty 75, Aces 71
Stewart paced the Liberty, who shot less than 40 percent from the field but out-rebounded the Aces by 12, a number that included eight more offensive boards. Wilson missed the game with an injury, Plum led the Aces with 25 points, but only three players scored in double figures.
New York Liberty Series Outlook
The Liberty came up short in last year’s Finals, but instead of suffering any kind of runner-up hangover, they instead came into this season loaded and motivated. New York raced out to the best record in the W early on, putting together two separate winning streaks of eight games, two of five and one of four. It lost back-to-back games just once and finished the regular season with the league’s top-scoring offense and best point differential.
It did it with a balanced approach that flexed its muscle in the first round. While Stewart led the Liberty in scoring during the regular season at 20.4 points per game, it was Ionescu who paced the team against the Dream with an average of 26.5, including 36 in the series finale.
Stewart averaged 16.5 points per game in the first round, with Leonie Fiebich (15) and Jones (14.5) rounding out the double-digit scorers. Betnijah Laney-Hamilton, who averaged 11.8 points per game during the regular season, is at 7.5 so far in the playoffs.
Expecting those numbers to hold up in this next series against the Aces is probably the wrong call. Although some players step up (and others shrink) in the postseason, the more games that are played and the more competitive the opponent, chances are the Liberty’s points distribution will begin to more closely remember that of the regular season, where Stewart led the way but Ionescu (18.2), Jones (14.2) and Laney-Hamilton (11.8) were the top four scorers.
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Jones led the team in rebounding during the first round and in the regular season, with Stewart just behind. Ionescu paced the team in assists in the regular season and is doing so again in the playoffs, so not everything the Liberty did in the first round was out of the norm.
Still, regression to the mean also would see the Liberty let the ball fly from 3 more often, whereas, in the regular season, the Liberty attempted 29 per game. Ionescu led the way in that category at 8.4 attempts, but Stewart, Jones, Laney-Hamilton and Fiebich all attempted at least 3.2 per game.
The team’s depth and varied skill on offense combined to make what was the league’s best offense in terms of points scored and offensive rating, with the No. 2 assist percentage and ratio and second-best true shooting percentage. The Liberty played this season at a middling pace, with their offense pairing nicely with the league’s third-best defense in terms of points allowed and rating.
Las Vegas Aces Series Outlook
Winning one championship is hard. Winning back-to-back titles is tougher. Winning three straight? Well, that’s never been done in the history of the W and the Aces very much have a chance to make some history this fall. Vegas being the No. 4 seed had less to do with any kind of down season or championship hangover but, instead, an inability to string long winning streaks together.
Including the two playoff wins over the Storm, Vegas has now won seven straight games and 10 of its last 11. Looking at its first-round triumph over Seattle, the Aces showed they could win in a variety of ways.
Game 1 saw their offense struggle to start but finish strong, with a defense that held their opponent to just two points in the fourth quarter in making the comeback. Game 2 was more like the Aces, as they got off to a fast start and finished strong to prevent the upset.
Having the record-setting league MVP in Wilson helps. The superstar averaged 22.5 points, 10.5 rebounds and 3.5 blocks over the two-game series, numbers that most anyone would be pleased with but were, aside from blocks, down from her season averages.
Wilson led her team in scoring in Game 1, but Game 2 was all about the resurgence of Kelsey Plum. The team’s second-leading scorer throughout the season, she followed a two-point dud in the first game with a 29-point explosion in the second. The contrast showed how dangerous the Aces can be, as they can win without her scoring but are likely to get an offensive outburst at any given time.
Jackie Young, Tiffany Hayes, Chelsea Gray and Alysha Clark all contributed during the regular season, and aside from Clark, all found themselves averaging double figures in their two postseason games. Along with her 14 points per game, Gray led the Aces with an average of eight assists per game over the two matchups.
Against the Storm, the Aces shot around their normal 3-point percentage but took fewer shots from deep. That is likely to change against the Liberty in what figures to be a high-scoring series.
After all, while the Liberty was first in the W in offensive rating, it was the Aces who were second, and where the Liberty was second in points per game, it was the Aces who were first. But unlike the Liberty, who were among the league’s top defensive teams, the Aces were middle of the pack in points allowed as well as defensive rating.
Series Prediction
Is this the real championship series? Whoever wins will likely be feeling good about their title chances, assuming they still have anything left after this one.
The top two offensive teams in the W squaring off lead to plenty of appetizing bets, including player props. Wilson points props are available and generally a good bet, though her history against the Liberty this season is not one of greatness. Still, the likelihood of a double-double is high every time she touches the floor.
All that said, if their previous meetings this season are any indication, Plum could put up some numbers, while Ionescu may find the bottom of the net often for the Liberty. We’ll be taking a good look at their point props all series long, along with those for Jones, who averaged nearly 20 points and 11 rebounds against the Aces this season.
But when it’s all over with, in a rematch of last year’s championship series, it will be the deeper and more balanced Liberty who emerge victorious, but needing all five games to do it.