AUBURN HILLS, Mich. – NBA history says the Pistons shouldn’t expect much out of the 29th pick in Thursday’s draft. Pistons history says they’ll come away with a pretty good player.

Over the past 10 drafts, the resumes of players picked 29th are pretty dreary. The unequivocal success story of the bunch came from the 2003 draft in which the Dallas Mavericks plucked Josh Howard at that spot. Howard’s gone on to become an All-Star, but a player picked 29th is about three times more likely to wash out of the NBA without ever leaving a mark.

That’s what happened to Wayne Simien, picked 29th in 2005 by Miami; to Steve Logan, who went 29th in 2002 (though Logan was actually the first pick in the second round that year when the NBA had 29 teams and Minnesota had been stripped of its first-round pick); and to Leon Smith in 1999.

The second-best player picked 29th over the past decade is Nazr Mohammed from the 1998 draft. Mohammed, a solid NBA rebounder and defender with a decent scoring touch, spent 1½ seasons with the Pistons before being shipped to Charlotte in February.

Last year’s No. 29 pick was Phoenix’s Alando Tucker, who looks like he could develop into a solid rotation player. Others who’ve gone 29th in the past decade are Mardy Collins, mired in the dysfunctional quagmire of the New York Knicks; David Harrison, looking like a major bust in Indiana; Trenton Hassell, a part-time starter and decent situational player; and notably bad dancer Mark Madsen, a plugger valued for his work ethic and high character.

The Pistons haven’t picked any lower than 27th in the eight drafts Joe Dumars has overseen, but they have picked in the 20s four times – and have a track record that stands head and shoulders above the NBA norm.

Dumars picked up Tayshaun Prince with the 23rd pick in 2002, Carlos Delfino 25th in 2003, Jason Maxiell 26th in 2005 and Arron Afflalo 27th in 2007. All four are not only solidly in the NBA, one is a high-level starter, two are high-end reserves and the fourth, Afflalo, appears well on his way to becoming a rotation staple.

That beats the average by a few laps. A study reported by DraftExpress.com shows that most picks from 23 and below over the past five years are either out of the NBA or barely hanging on and very few have emerged as starters or quality reserves.

The Pistons believe this is a deep draft for players in the 25 to 35 range and believe they’ll come away with a player who can make an impact similar to Afflalo’s.

But who that might be is anyone’s guess because this year, to a far greater degree than most, has been especially fluid in the weeks and days leading up to the draft. Players pegged as late first or early second-rounders a few weeks ago – Rider’s Jason Thompson or France’s Alexis Ajinca, for instance – are now projected in some circles to be going as high as the late lottery. But the agents for several players projected in the teens or early 20s and hoping their clients don’t plummet out of the first round altogether.

The Pistons’ pick could come from a wide range of players. More than ever, the team will go into the draft focused on taking the best player available regardless of position. Dumars last year was intent on bolstering his perimeter and did that by grabbing Rodney Stuckey 15th and then Afflalo. But because he’s stated his intention to shake up the roster, the Pistons can’t project as easily this year what their specific needs will be heading into training camp.

Big men who could be in the mix are Indiana’s D.J. White, Cal’s DeVon Hardin and Ryan Anderson, Ajinca if he slides that far or 18-year-old Serge Ibaka of the Congo, who’s drawn comparisons to Amir Johnson.

Kansas State’s Bill Walker has been frequently mentioned as a possible target of the Pistons in various media reports. Walker suffered what is now being termed a minor ligament strain during a workout in mid-June at Golden State and hasn’t worked out since for teams. On top of two previous ACL tears – one to each knee – some teams might be leery of Walker’s medical history, but if they can be convinced the injuries were isolated and not indicative of a pattern, Walker could be a late steal. A high school teammate of O.J. Mayo’s, Walker two years ago was considered a future high lottery pick.

Another wild card is athletic French wing Nicolas Batum, who had to shut down a workout in Toronto last week when a test revealed a potential heart problem. Batum’s agent said tests in Cleveland on Monday cleared his client. How his draft stock is affected remains to be seen. Batum was projected to go anywhere from the middle of the first round to the mid 20s prior to the heart scare.