As Pacers fans endure the monotonous doldrums of the offseason, it is time to make some predictions about the upcoming 2022-23 Pacers season. The young and re-vamped squad has the talent and potential to make some unexpected waves this season.
1. The defense improves
It is not really a secret that Pacers fans, and even the coaches, were disappointed with some of the defensive play last season. The Blue & Gold finished 26th in points allowed per game (114.9) and tied for last in both opponent field goal percentage (48.3 percent) and opponent 3-point shooting (37.2 percent). While it sounds cliche, there is nowhere to go but up. Literally.
Tyrese Haliburton finished fifth in the NBA in steals per game (1.7) last season. This season, he will have full command of the starting offense and an extreme confidence level. Of course, having a healthy veteran sparkplug and an elite swiper such as T.J. McConnell as a backup also helps. Two seasons ago, McConnell finished second in the league in steals per game (1.9) and set the NBA record for steals in a half with nine. Additionally, Chris Duarte should have some overall closeout, rotation, and position improvements, as the guard enters his second year. In the paint, the Blue & Gold have a talented rotation anchored by an elite rim protector in Myles Turner. Despite Turner's extended absence, the squad finished tied for fourth in blocks per game (5.6). Isaiah Jackson's active defense certainly contributed to that. Additionally, the return of Jalen Smith, who stands at 6-10, will add a much-needed height boost to the power forward spot. Last season, Oshae Brissett and Terry Taylor often were forced to defend seven-footers due to injuries.
2. The Pacers will finish in the Top 5 in assists per game
Despite last season's woes, the Blue & Gold did a solid job finding the open man. Indiana finished the 2021-22 season dishing the ninth-most assists per game (25.4). Under year two of Rick Carlisle's reign, that should improve. Along with general increases in team chemistry, Tyrese Haliburton and T.J. McConnell are elite pass-first point guards. Last season, Haliburton notched 10 assists or more in 28 games, including a career-high 17 on two occasions. The 22-year-old nearly finished with a points/assists double-double average, falling just 0.4 assists per game short. Meanwhile, the veteran McConnell finished his shortened season averaging 4.9 assists per game, 0.1 off his career average. He notched a season-high 10 assists on Nov. 1 against the San Antonio Spurs, proving he still has elite court vision. Alone, the Pacers' one-two punch at point guard combined for 14.5 assists per game. They also added a third pass-first point guard in Andrew Nembhard during the 2022 NBA Draft. In college, Nembhard averaged 5.3 assists over 131 college games.
Additionally, this athletic group of youngsters is aiming to play fast and free, building chemistry game by game. With an increased pace of play, the opportunity for more fast breaks and outlet passes arises. The increase in chemistry will lead to unselfish play and finding the open man for the easy bucket.
3. The Pacers will finish in the Top 15 in 3-point shooting
One of the main struggles of the Pacers last year was the long-range shot. Despite taking the 15th-most 3-point attempts in the league, the Blue & Gold finished tied for 25th in 3-point shooting percentage, connecting on just 34.4 percent of their shots from deep. Luckily, it appears as if they fixed this problem during the 2022 NBA Draft.
While the small sample size of the Summer League should be taken with a grain of salt, Bennedict Mathurin seems to have the talent to fix the Pacers' long-range shooting woes. The rookie shot 38.3 percent from deep over 63 games at Arizona. Then, in his first two games as an NBA player, Mathurin started with confident triples. He finished the Summer League averaging 38.5 percent from deep, indicating that he will bring an immediate lift to the Pacers' perimeter game. Additionally, 3-point specialist Buddy Hield will bring a full season's worth of sharpshooting to the squad. The guard finished the 2021-22 season averaging 36.2 percent from deep. Then, there are the sneaky 3-point threats of Tyrese Haliburton (41.6 percent from 3-point range in 2021) and Jalen Smith (37.3 percent) that opposing teams will have to defend. It is easy to infer that the Pacers' team 3-point shooting percentage should experience a significant increase this year, even if the volume remains the same.
4. Indiana will win more than 25 games this year
Yes, this can be considered a "re-tooling" year by all accounts. After all, the Pacers saw the departure of reliable veterans in Domantas Sabonis, Malcolm Brogdon, T.J. Warren, Caris LeVert, and Justin Holiday over the last seven months. They have opted to fill their roster with elite, young talent. Along the way, they could likely make mistakes against veteran championship-now teams. However, the roster has solid pieces at all positions. Haliburton provides the elite point-guard potential to take this team to the next level. McConnell provides solid veteran backup minutes and can fill in as a starter when needed. Duarte is becoming a solid two-way player. Hield, and hopefully Mathurin, provide the 3-point shooting component the Pacers were missing for most of last season. Turner, Jackson, and Smith's returns will bolster defense in the paint. Finally, Oshae Brissett and Terry Taylor add that hustle factor necessary to tip loose balls and boards in a team's favor. Brissett brings the everyman role NBA rosters desperately seek, while Taylor has shown elite offensive rebounding skills, which gives the Blue & Gold numerous second-chance opportunities. If the team stays healthy and things come together, a playoff or play-in berth is not out of the question for this squad. At the very least, Indiana should be able to top last season's win total with relative ease.
5. Bennedict Mathurin will win Rookie of the Year
Perhaps the boldest prediction of the bunch has been saved for the final spot on this list. There are reasons on both sides of this argument as to why it will or won't happen. First, this NBA rookie class appears to be stacked. After averaging 20 points over two Summer League games, Orlando Magic forward Paolo Banchero looks deserving of the first-overall pick. With that will come increased media attention and general preseason hype, giving him a good run into the season. Additionally, since the Magic have a young, talented roster, the rookie will see a significant amount of playing time. Sacramento Kings rookie Keegan Murray also poses a threat to this claim. Murray finished the Summer League averaging 23.3 points over four appearances.
However, Mathurin also has a few things going for him. Although picked outside the top five, Mathurin earned his spotlight swiftly during the Summer League. The rookie finished with a team-high 23 points on 9-of-16 shooting in his NBA debut, including 3-of-6 from deep, against the Hornets. He concluded his Summer League season shooting 48.8 percent from the field and 38.5 percent from deep. If the swingman hovers around 50 percent shooting from the field and 40 percent shooting from three for most of the season, that would give him a boost when it comes time to pick the winner. Furthermore, Mathurin is in a similar spot as Banchero. Young, superb talent surrounds the former Wildcat, which will give him ample opportunities to earn the spotlight for Indiana. Perhaps coach Rick Carlisle summarized it best. He gets to play with Tyrese Haliburton. And Haliburton's performances have the potential to elevate Mathurin to the NBA's top rookie spot.