The Lakers (0-1) have a second chance at picking up a road playoff win at Denver (1-0) with Monday evening’s Game 2 of Round 1 in the Mile High City, set to tip off at 7 p.m. on Spectrum SportsNet. Below are three keys to the contest:
GLASS BATTLE
We know that the Lakers haven’t been able to get over the hump with a victory vs. Denver for nine straight games now, and certain trends help to explain why. Perhaps the most basic: the Nuggets are controlling the backboards.
In those nine wins, the Nuggets are averaging 46.4 rebounds to L.A.’s 39.0. That margin is even bigger in the previous three games:
April 20 (Game 1): 49-40 (15-6 offensive)
March 2: 47-31 (11-6)
Feb. 8: 50-39 (14-10)
That’s a difference of 146 to 110, or 12 rebounds per game overall, and six offensive boards per game.
“We just have to box out, put a body on their bigs. Aaron Gordon, (DeAndre Jordan), (Nikola) Jokic, just gotta get into their legs … that hurt us tonight,” said Anthony Davis. “The offensive rebounds, especially in the third quarter, late in the second, kinda just cut into the lead, and … opened up (their) lead. Especially on some big possessions where we held them to one shot and (they got) an offensive rebound. We gotta make that adjustment for Game 2.”
“Just hit bodies, (but) it’s challenging at times,” said LeBron James. “Obviously Aaron Gordon does a great job of playing that dunker spot, we get caught in rotations sometimes with the smalls on him. Obviously Joker, his ability to rebound his misses or just rebound in general. It’s a big team, the got a big frontcourt with MPJ (Michael Porter Jr.) … we just gotta do a better job of getting hits and collectively rebound our defensive glass.”
When the Lakers beat the Nuggets 4-1 in the 2020 Western Conference Finals, they out-boarded them, if barely, 37.4 to 36.2. Of course, the players outside of LeBron, AD, Jokic, Murray and Michael Porter Jr. were all different, with the Lakers boasting significant additional size in the form of Dwight Howard, JaVale McGee, Markieff Morris and Kyle Kuzma.
LAL don’t have that same, big, personnel this year, but if the Lakers are going to win Game 2, it may need to start on the backboards, nonetheless.
THREE-POINT GAP
Another clear edge for the Nuggets in these last nine games has been from the 3-point line, where Denver has shot 39.7%, to LAL’s 33.7%. They’ve also made 14.1 triples per game, relative to L.A.’s 9.2.
In Game 1, Denver was 15 for 42 from 3 (35.7%), to L.A.’s 8 for 29 (27.6%).
However, in the regular season overall, the Lakers were actually the more accurate 3-point shooting team, hitting 37.5% of their looks, to rank 8th in the NBA. Denver was one place behind in 9th, converting 37.4%.
By volume, both teams made the same number of triples per game, at 11.7, which tied for 24th.
Defensively, the Nuggets are a long team, and they did rank 8th on the season in 3-point % against, at 35.4%, relative to the Lakers finishing 24th by allowing 37.4% of 3’s to opponents. Nonetheless, there isn’t necessarily something that Denver does defensively that limits the Lakers from a 3-point shooting perspective.
L.A. had a number of good looks in Game 1 that just didn’t go down, including many from D’Angelo Russell, L.A.’s best sniper, who converted only 1 of 9 attempts.
“D-Lo is a huge reason why we're here in the first place," said Darvin Ham. "I'm not going to bail out on my player just because he's missing the shots that he normally makes. So same shots were going in againt New Orleans and other games that he's played in to help us get to this point … it just wasn't his night."
Russell made 226 triples in the regular season, to rank 10th in the entire NBA. That was six more than Porter Jr.’s 220, and MPJ played 81 games to Russell’s 76. Of the top 10 3-point makers, only CJ McCollum (42.9%) shot a better percentage than Russell’s 41.5%.
“I feel like sometimes the ball just don't fall," Russell noted. "I was locked in on the details and the little things just to try to stay on the floor defensively and things like that. And you look up, your shots aren't falling. So, no love lost. Can't be upset about that one. Be ready for the next one.”
DEFENDING JOKIC
The game’s greatest offensive players have the ability read defenses in a way that require multiple approaches from the opposition, and Nikola Jokic is at the top of that list in today’s NBA, as LeBron has been for so many years.
Before Game 1, Coach Ham was asked about how often he’d have his best – and perhaps the NBA’s best – defensive player, Davis, guard Jokic.
“There are different variables that go into that,” said Ham. “The risk of fouls, gauging it and wanting to do it at the right moment. Nikola is really good at developing a rhythm against whatever defensive scheme that’s being used against him. It’s only a matter of time before he figures things out … you just want to change up your pitches.”
Here’s how Jokic fared against each Laker defender when they were the primary assignment in Game 1:
Rui Hachimura: 8 of 10 FG’s, 16 points, 2 assists
LeBron James: 6 of 7 FG’s, 12 points
Anthony Davis: 2 of 7 FG’s, 1 of 2 3’s, 5 points, 2 assists
Spencer Dinwiddie: 0 of 1 FG, 0 points
Austin Reaves: 1 of 1 FG, 2 points
Clearly, Davis had the most success when defending Jokic. The obvious adjustment would be to increase the number of possessions that he defends the Serbian MVP. And yet, Jokic could not only be more effective against Davis 1-on-1, but Denver’s other players could find themselves with more room to operate without Davis lurking behind the play.
Ham acknowledged that they have a few other looks to throw at Jokic that the Lakers didn’t use in Game 1; we’ll see what kind of impact that has against a player that’s seemingly had the answer to most schemes.